Let's get straight to the point. Election season in the US gives us all a chance to reflect on the near-certainties of the macro-political cycle. And they are near-certainties. There's volatility in the run-up, triggered partly by the incumbent's enfeebled response to whatever happens in the world, partly by the candidates' speeches, gaffes and poll ratings. Then, after however much argument, a winner emerges. Cue the upswing. The new president has a shiny new four-year mandate, w