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Machine Learning + Regime Switching = Profitability?

Published in Automated Trader Magazine Issue 09 Q2 2008

The concept of regimes such as bull and bear markets is elemental to financial markets. The desire to predict regime switches, commonly known as turning points, is similarly elemental. Ernest Chan, CEO of E. P. Chan & Associates, examines a possible technique for this most demanding of tasks.

If attempts to predict the switching from a bull to a bear market were even slightly successful, one could focus on just this one type of switching and call it a day. If only it were that easy! In fact, the difficulty with predicting this type of bull/bear switching has encouraged researchers to examine other types of financial markets regime switching instead, in the hope of finding some that may be more amenable to existing statistical tools.

Some of the other common financial or

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