Eric Noll, Convergex
New York - Convergex, the brokerage and trading related services provider, has released the results of its 'Take Your Trump-erature' survey, designed to gauge President Trump's possible impact on the financial markets. The survey, which was conducted from February 21, 2017 through February 24, 2017, garnered a record number of responses with some surprising results.
According to the survey findings, 74% of financial industry participants have a positive outlook on the financial markets, even though only 40% of the respondents approve of the job President Trump is doing thus far. However, only 20% of the respondents expect the market volatility (as measured by the CBOE VIX index) to increase more than 25% over the next 4 years, revealing an ongoing complacency about possible dramatic market fluctuations.
"We were surprised at some of the survey findings regarding Wall Street's sentiments of the financial markets while under President Trump's watch," said Eric W. Noll, Convergex CEO and President. "It is clear from the results that most of the respondents feel President Trump will have a positive impact on the near-term prospects of the financial market, even if they don't necessarily agree with his overall vision for the country."
Below is an overview of the key survey findings:
- While only 40% of survey participants give their approval of "Trump the President," almost 74% give him high marks (grade A or B) for his effect on the investment climate for stocks. Moreover, over 57% expect stocks to do better over the next 4 years under a Trump Presidency than if Clinton had won the Presidency (21%).
- Changing tax policy is the most important aspect of Trumponomics to equity markets, according to 54% of respondents. Deregulation came in 2nd (25%) and Infrastructure spending came in 3rd (16%).
- Survey respondents think the equity markets want to see lower corporate taxes (46% ranked this "most important") and lower repatriation rates (29% said that was "most important") far more than lower individual/personal taxes (only 19% said that was "most important" to US equities) or the adoption of border taxes (4%).
- Q4 2017 was the most common expected timeframe (28% of the responses) as to when new tax legislation would pass. Q3 2017 was second, with 23% of respondents.
- Favorite Trump Trade sectors: 92% of respondents said Trump policies will help Financials the most, followed by Energy (89%) and Industrials (84%). Least favored: Healthcare (29%) and Consumer Staples (46%).
- Active over passive: 63% of respondents say the Trump administration will be better for active management rather than passive management (16%).
- Financial industry biggest worries: Congress not passing legislation (31%) and trade/currency war (32%). Respondents were least concerned about company-specific tweets (4%) and Trump's Immigration policy (5%).
Full survey results are available here