BEIJING (Dow Jones)-China's exports are expected to grow at a slower pace of around 10% this year, from 20.3% last year, a state researcher wrote in a commentary published in the China Economic Times Thursday.

As a percentage of gross domestic product, the country's trade surplus will further slide to below 2%, said Yu Bin, director general of the Department of Macroeconomic Research at the Development Research Center of the State Council, a government think-tank that publishes the newspaper.

That compares with a trade surplus of around 2.1% of GDP in 2011, according to Dow Jones calculations.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said Wednesday that China has already achieved a basic balance in international payments, as the current-account surplus--which includes the trade surplus and some other payments such as interest on foreign investments---is now below 3% of GDP.

Yu also said in the commentary that growth in China's consumer price index is likely to decelerate to below 4% this year. That is lower than his earlier forecast for 4.6% growth, according to a report by the China Securities Journal last month.

The researcher said he is maintaining his forecast for China's GDP to grow 8.5% this year.

Newspaper website: http://www.cet.com.cn

-By China Bureau, Dow Jones Newswires; (8610) 8400-7799; djnews.beijing@dowjones.com