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MFR's Recap of Yesterday's Market Activity

Posted:02/12/2008 7:17 by Peter Burnside
The equity selling continued on through the US session as economic gloom seemed to prevail. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 ended down almost 6% and the S&P 500 is down almost 7%. The US manufacturing sector contracted more in Nov as did the sector globally. JP Morgan’s global manufacturing PMI hit a new low in Nov of 36.4 after dropping to 41.0 in Oct. The weakness in new orders and employment are worrisome for the broader outlook. We will be getting the global service sector PMIs later in the week and they are likely to suggest further contraction as well. The risk aversion that was evident going into today’s US session is still evident as we approach the market close. The VIX has moved up 10 points and over 65 and the US 2yr bond yield hit a new all time low. The weak data also contributed to sharp declines in commodity prices. The CRB is off 3.7% on the day, with everything except natural gas declining in price. Oil has dropped back below the $50 level and off almost $6 on the day. Gold too is down and has nearly broken below the $870 level -- off more than $40 today. Weak demand and safe haven flows behind these declines. With aggressive central bank rate cuts already priced in, the realization of lower policy rates later this week may not provide any lasting support. Economic rebound still looks far off. The USD index has continued to be supported by safe haven flows. Today’s range during the US session was roughly 86.70-87.30. It continues to be the JPY and CHF that sit on top of the relative strength profile. JPY has gained almost 2.5% vs the USD since Friday’s close. USD/JPY started the day at about 95.50 and it is now trading just above 93. EUR/USD closed on Friday near 1.27 and it is now trading at 1.2630, up from its low of 1.2583. The GBP is at the weak end of the profile, off over 3% vs USD and EUR/GBP has moved up from about 0.8250 at Friday’s close to about 0.85 as we approach the close. The growing expectation of a 100bp rate cut by the BOE on Thursday partially behind the GBP weakness. Bond yields have plunged today on safe haven flows. German 2s ended down 7bp at 2.12% and UK 2s down 17bp at 2.01%. The 10yr yields also lower - German down 9bp to 3.16% and UK down 11bp at 3.65%. US 2s hit a new all-time click here to return to the top of the page
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