UK Politics Comment

First Published Saturday, 11 July 2009 07:57 am - © 2009 Need to Know News

The UK prime minister Gordon Brown appears to have beaten off a rebellion against his authority within the ranks of his own Labour party -- and the pound and sterling-denominated instruments may benefit as a result.

Indeed, the old adage that markets hate nothing more than uncertainty is already coming into play. For evidence, look no further than Cable at just under $1.61, comparatively firm when set against some levels seen at the height of the crisis on Monday.

None of this is to suggest that Mr. Brown's problems lie in the past or that the unrest is not real. It is, very.

Many Labour MPs, voters and supporters believe the party is heading for certain defeat in the forthcoming general election which must be held within a year.

Their problem is, if Mr. Brown is toppled, who would or could lead Labour into that election? The two most obvious alternatives -- many would say the only two -- are the deputy party leader Harriet Harman and senior cabinet minister Alan Johnson.

Both, though, have by their actions pledged their loyalty to Mr. Brown -- Ms. Harman by speaking for him and the party, Mr. Johnson by accepting the job as Home Secretary and thus anchoring himself to the government ranks.

It was a previous Labour prime minister, Harold Wilson, who coined the celebrated aphorism that a week is a long time in politics.

If Mr. Brown is now safe until autumn at least, as commentators are suggesting, against that benchmark two or three months must seem like an eternity.

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