OECD's Gurria:IMF,ECB,EZ Firewall 'Rather Formidable Package'
First Published Sunday, 22nd April 2012 01:41 am - © 2012 MNI News MNI Foreign Exchange Bullet Points delivers real-time commentary in concise bullet point format. Learn more
--Have A More Vulnerable Banking System If Banks Don't Raise
Capital --IMFC Communique 'A Mixed Verdict' By Brai Odion-Esene
WASHINGTON (MNI) - Following the agreement to boost the
International Monetary Fund's resources by over $400 billion,
combined with measures already put in place by the European
Central Bank and European authorities, means a "formidable"
package is now available to combat the sovereign debt crisis, the
head of the OECD said Saturday. Speaking to reporters after the
meeting of the IMF's International Monetary and Financial
Committee in Washington, OECD Secretary General Angel Gurria
warned, however, that the issue of bank capitalization must still
be addressed or the system will remain vulnerable. The United
States chose not to add its voice to countries pledging
additional funds to the IMF, but Gurria said while the fund's
biggest voting member might not have be able to join in "for
practical reasons, they always have been there, so in a way its
like reserves -- its still there and its still available." The
IMF was able to secure an increase in its resources by over $430
billion, almost doubling its lending capacity. Gurria said when
taken together, the additional $430 billion for the IMF, the
boost of the Eurozone firewall to E700 billion, and funding
provided to banks via the European Central Bank's three-year long
term refinancing operation "are a rather formidable package.""You
are talking upwards of almost $2.3 trillion to $2.5 trillion," he
said. "That's a lot of money in any language." Having tackled the
issues of Greece, banks' funding, setting up firewalls, and the
Eurozone's fiscal compact, "we still have to deal with the
capitalization of the banks," Gurria said, something that has
occurred at a faster pace in the United States compared to
Europe. Secondly, European authorities must address how to
achieve a balance between fiscal consolidation and growth, he
said. The third is a combination of issues; from very high
unemployment, particularly among the youth, to growing inequality
and the "very clear threat" of increased protectionism. "Those
things have to be addressed," Gurria said. However, with interest
rates in most advanced economist at or close to zero, "we have
practically run out of monetary policy room," he said, while with
regard to fiscal policy -- "we've exhausted to a very great
extent whatever room we had ... to get out of the recession." In
its communique at the end of its meeting, the IMFC said the world
economy is "recovering gradually," but projected only "moderate"
growth and warned that "risks remain high." The group called for
continued "accommodative" monetary policies in advanced economies
and warned against "excessively contractionary fiscal policies."
Gurria called the communique "a mixed verdict," with "green
shoots" noted in the U.S., relatively flat growth in Europe, some
recovery in Japan, and a slowdown in the large emerging market
economies. "There's clearly progress, but on the structural
issues there is still a lot of work to do to secure medium and
long-term sustainability," Gurria said. In his written statement
to the IMFC, Gurria had said the global banking and financial
system remains "a major concern," noting that while progress is
being made to deal with Eurozone sovereign and banking crises,
"tensions remain in financial markets.""A more fundamental
process of reform of the global banking system remains
imperative," Gurria told the IMFC, especially as it pertains to
improving the equity capital positions of banks. Asked by MNI
about worries that banks raising their capital levels will mean
less available for lending, Gurria acknowledged that banks are
being asked to raise more capital "at a time when we are in a
very low-growth scenario, and in some cases in Europe a negative
growth scenario." Despite this, banks have to increase their
capital levels otherwise "there's a question of stability of the
system, but also of confidence," he warned. The concern is that
this will lead to deleveraging, but Gurria said banks have no
incentive to reduce their balance sheet unless forced to do so by
the regulatory environment or because they are unable to raise
capital via the markets. "So I think the incentive is there to
raise capital, but it's a complex moment to raise capital," he
said. "If they don't raise capital then you have a more
vulnerable banking system," he added. There is only a problem if
there is an attempt to do it all at once -- raising bank capital
levels while implementing prudential lending standards -- he
said. "There are such things as sequencing." ** MNI Washington
Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
