PREVIEW: UK May retail sales forecast to rise 0.2% m/m, fall 0.4% y/y

UK retail sales are forecast to rise a tepid 0.2% in May from up 0.9% the month prior.

Year on year, sales are expected to fall an average of 0.4% in May compared to a rise of 2.6% in April.

The range of May forecasts are wildly divergent given the recent change in the way the Office for National Statistics (ONS) now calculates the data, coupled with the fact that the numbers are historically volatile.

Fortis Bank's Nick Kounis is in fact looking for sales to fall 0.5% on the month and decline as much as 1.2% year on year.

"The official series is out of line with most other evidence of consumer spending," he said. "This estimate is a little more consistent with the negative trend that we've seen in spending."