Preview: May Leaders

The May Leading Economic Index is expected to gain 1.1% following a 1% increase in April The Coincident Index is expected to be unchanged following a 0.2% decline in April The Lagging Index is expected to fall 0.1% following a 0.5% decline in April

The Conference Boards Leading Economic Index is expected to gain more than 1% for a second consecutive month after the April Index came in positive for the first time since June. For the first time in what seems like ages, risk to the May Leading Index are firmly pointed to the upside as almost all of the index components are expected to provide positive contributions over the month. The Factory workweek section is likely to reflect the only index laggard in May, though Non-Def. Cap. Goods and Consumer Goods Orders could potentially post marginal losses for the month.

May Leaders will be led higher by improvements in ISM Supplier Deliveries , the 10yr-Fed Funds spread, the S&P 500, UM Confidence, the real M2 Money Supply, and Building Permits.

It should be mentioned that despite its title, the Conference Boards Leading Index is made up completely of lagging indicators, in that it is merely a calculation consisting of data that is for the most part already available.