ADP,Econ Data Previews,Nonfarm Payrolls Real Time News items

  • An Early Look at Next Week's Employment Data: ADPPosted:28/08/2009 21:07 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
    βΆ Analysts currently expect the August ADP report to show job losses of anywhere between 300k to just under 200k following a slightly worse than expected 371k drop in July and a much worse than anticipated 473k decline in June
    βΆ The current range of estimates for headline ADP indicate a decelerating rate of job declines, though the current median of 225 headline cuts is subject to change as more analysts enter the fray next week
    βΆ The August report revealed sharp drop in job losses for both manufacturing and overall goods-producing employment, which though promising, could potentially be unraveled via downward revisions to the July data, and or a pickup in the rate of decline in August
    βΆ Service sector employment, which accounts for more than 80% of jobs in ADP, has been stagnant over the past few months. This puts into question the increasingly optimistic outlook for US employment going forward as ADP private sector employment reflects a more realistic view relative to the less represented goods-producing sectors
    βΆ The August ADP report should improve from July; however it will take some time before returning to a sustainable rate of job expansion, or even a month-over-month gain, for that matter. Manufacturing employment has the potential to turn positive in the months ahead given its recent trend, though it remains to be seen if auto-sector will withstand the post 'clunkers' drop off.
  • Preview: November Challenger Job Cuts, ADP Employment ChangePosted:11/07/2009 22:25 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
    The November ADP Employment report is expected to reveal a more than 200k drop in employment following a 157k drop in October. This would reflect the first monthly decline of 200k jobs or more since Dec-01. Potential upside remains severely limited. Related data: βΆ October ADP Employment fell by 157k following a 26k drop in September November Challenger Job cuts are likely to tick higher following the surge to 78.9% y-o-y in October. Monthly Challenger data is sometimes subject to variability, so a lower-than-anticipated increase may not clearly reflect heightened jobs pressure in November. Related data: βΆ October Challenger Job Cuts Rose 78.9% following a 32.6% increase in September
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