Ag Real Time News items

• U.S. Agricultural Crop Value falls 6.3% in 2009 versus 2008Posted:19/02/2010 19:46 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
• Cocoa and Sugar bear watching..or trading today; Sugar up near 30cents pound; Cocoa trades about $3800 per ton in LondonPosted:21/01/2010 14:14 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
• NY Sugar hits fresh 29yr high at $0.2897 p/lbPosted:19/01/2010 17:59 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
• Corn Futures move limit-down after USDA report earlier showed largest crop everPosted:12/01/2010 15:23 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
• NY Sugar rallying off the open, testing 28.90 high from 5 Jan - World Sugar trading at 29yr highPosted:07/01/2010 13:34 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
• FCOJ rally continues to 22 month high at $1.4350 per pound on continued freezing temps, espcially in Indian River CountyPosted:05/01/2010 17:09 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
• USDA Says Foods Prices Roughly Unchanged in NovemberPosted:24/12/2009 14:02 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
• USDA Sees 2010 Food Inflation at 3-4%Posted:24/12/2009 14:02 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
• USDA Estimates 2009 Food Inflation at 1.5-2.5%Posted:24/12/2009 14:02 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
• GS Coffee outlook for Arabica up to $1.40lb, 5 cents higherPosted:03/12/2009 15:08 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
• GS 3m Bean Forecast up to $1050 per bushelPosted:03/12/2009 15:07 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
• WASDE Wheat ending stocks 885mln; Bean Production f/cast at 3.195bln; Corn Production 12.921blnPosted:10/11/2009 13:16 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  WASDE estimates November U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks were up by 21mln bushels to 885mln bushels from the October data. Total Use Estimates fell by 25mln bushels to 2.098bln bushels and Price Estimates narrowed by 10cent on the bid and ask to $4.65-5.05 per bushel. Soybean Production is forecast at a record 3.195bln bushels, up 69mln from October estimates. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 270mln bushels, up 40mln from last month. Price projections are up 20cents on both ends of the range to $8.20 to $10.20 per bushel. Corn Production is forecast down 97mln bushels to 12.921bln and ending stocks are forecast down 47mln bushels to 1.625bln bushels. Price is up 20cents on both ends to $3.25 - $3.85 per bushel.
• November Corn Production down 1%; Beans up 2%; All Cotton down 4%Posted:10/11/2009 13:16 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  November Corn Production, at 12.92bln bushels, is down 1% from the October forecast but up 7% (8.2mln bushels) over October 2008. Per Acre Yield is expected at 162.9 bushels, down 1.3 bushels from the October report but 9 bushels per acre higher than 2008 levels and, if realized, the highest yield on record. Nebraska, Minnesota and Iowa annual production estimates were up, nearly making up for losses in IL and smaller producing states. Soybean Production is forecast at a record high 3.32bln bushels, up 2% from the October forecast and up 12% from last year. Based on November 1st reported conditions, yields are expected up 0.9 bushels per acre from last month to 43.3 bushels per acre
• Meet on Wheat set for ThursdayPosted:26/10/2009 13:59 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will convene a meeting of its Agricultural Advisory Committee (AAC) on Thursday, October 29, 2009, to obtain the views of agricultural futures market experts, national farm organizations, major commodity and agribusiness groups and the farm banking community. The major topic for discussion will be the issue of convergence as it relates to the Chicago Board of Trade
• USDA's Nat'l Veterinary Services Labs have confirmed presence of H1N1 in sample from MN. State Fair...Additional samples being testedPosted:19/10/2009 18:01 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
• USDA says pork samples are being tested; Pork is safe to eat; USDA has spoken with US trading partners saying there is no scientific reason to restrict tradePosted:19/10/2009 17:25 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
• Informa Sees '09 US Soy Crop at 3.383bln BU, 44 BU/Acre YieldPosted:02/10/2009 16:23 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
• Informa Sees '09 US Corn Output at 13.127bln BU, 164.7 BU/AcrePosted:02/10/2009 16:23 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
• US Feedlots Purchased 2.11mln Cattle in August, Up 2.4% Year-over-yearPosted:18/09/2009 20:04 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
• NASS PRODUCTION â CORN PRODUCTION UP 2%; BEANS UP 1%, COTTON UP 2%Posted:11/09/2009 13:34 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  NASS PRODUCTION
• September WASDE WHEAT, CORN, BEAN ESTIMATESPosted:11/09/2009 13:32 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  WASDE 2009/2010 U.S. Projection for Wheat Supply and Use are 2,961mln bushels Total Supply and 2,218mln bushels Total Use leaving Ending Stocks at 743mln bushels. The Average Farm Price Projection for 2009/2010 is $4.70-$5.50 per bushel. WASDE projection for World Wheat Supply for 2009/2010 is 832.71mln metric tons Total Supply and 186.61mln metric tons Ending Stocks. The U.S. Wheat balance sheet is about unchanged as a 20mln bushel increase in domestic Soft Red Winter Wheat was offset by a 20mln bushel reduction in Hard Red Winter Wheat. The Price Projection of $4.70 - $5.50 is down by 20cents on the high end of the range due to larger than expected world supply and
• September Beans tank; down over over 22 cents in November contractPosted:02/09/2009 20:00 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
• Corn Futures - DEC thru Red March off over 10centsPosted:02/09/2009 19:50 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
• September Corn down 9 3/4 cents at 3.16 1/2Posted:02/09/2009 19:42 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
• September Beans off 40 3/4 cents at 10.59 1/2Posted:02/09/2009 19:42 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
• Wheat - SEPT, DEC off more than 14 cents at 4.56 3/4 and 484 1/2 respectivelyPosted:02/09/2009 19:20 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
• July 23, 09, from 3 p.m. EDT to 5 p.m. Subcommittee on Convergence in Agricultural Commodity Markets will have 2nd public conference call.Posted:21/07/2009 21:32 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  The Subcommittee on Convergence in Agricultural Commodity Markets, a subcommittee of the CFTCâs Agricultural Advisory Committee, was formed by the CFTC to identify the causes of poor cash-futures convergence in select agricultural commodity markets and advise on actions to remedy the situation. The Subcommittee held its initial public conference call on June 8, 2009.
  The conference call is open to the public.
  Information link here
  
• CFTC recommendation - Phase out exising Wheat Waivers for Index Traders - text belowPosted:21/07/2009 21:13 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  The Subcommitteeâs wheat report found that index traders were one of the primary causes for the large price spreads that inhibited convergence.
  CFTC regulations currently limit speculative traders to 5,000 wheat futures contracts in any one month, and 6,500 wheat contracts for all months combined.
  The CFTC has granted a number of specific exemptions from these position limits to swap dealers who are purchasing futures contracts to hedge their positions arising from the sale of index-related swaps to third parties. The CFTC also has granted âno actionâ letters to two other traders selling index-related products that allow them to hold positions at levels above the standard speculative position limits. The report recommended that the CFTC limit the positions of index traders to the standard speculative position limits for wheat futures.
  
• Wheat headed for test of Mid- April low on loss of 61.8% levelPosted:09/07/2009 12:28 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  Odds are front month Wheat will test the Mid-April low before they try another leg higher. With the loss of the 61.8% retracement of the mid-April to June 1 rally this week, odds jump that a full retracement will take place down near the 511 level.
  That said, there is now talk in the market of hedge funds set up to accumulate grains on the notion that the U.S. economy will suffer a significant bout of inflation by Christmas. One $6bln fund is said to have already started accumulating both futures and options positions on the inflation notion.
  
• July Beans reverse course; up 11 cents on the dayPosted:10/07/2009 10:30 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  July Beans sold off this morning but have been tracking higher for much of the day, reaching 1226 at one point. Going into the close, July Beans are coming under position squaring pressure but remain in an overall uptrend.
  
• July Corn trading retracement levelsPosted:09/07/2009 11:11 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  July Corn is down just over 3 cents at this writing, still with the upper end of y/day's range as the contract nears expiration.
  Yesterday's range took out the 38.2% retracement of the December low to present rally; that level is at 402 5/8ths today. The 50% retrace is down at 387 7/8.
  
• July Beans consolidating losses in low end of y/day's range; more downside looks likely w/ uptrend brokenPosted:12/07/2009 19:47 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  July Beans had maintained the uptrend while Corn and Wheat clearly reversed trends but that may be over. There was some talk of gains earlier today related to dollar strength..that might have been true short term, but a recovery from current levels will be extremely difficult. Non-correlated trades will be unwound in quick order if y/day's low falls.
  
• July Wheat reversal - short, sharp..sustained Posted:12/07/2009 23:50 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  July Wheat early gains were quickly erased in a barrage of selling on the breach of 575. The contract looks likely to test y/day's low at 568 and perhaps beyond. As noted earlier, the sell-off in Wheat became a trend-changer last week; there is no reason to catch the falling knife here.
  
• July Corn prices under pressure in commodities pullbackPosted:09/07/2009 22:25 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  July Corn was down 2 3/4 cent y/day and the entire day's range was inside of Thursday's range. There is a good bit of resistance overhead at 450 and support is down at 433 5/8 and 431 7/16 - the 200 day moving average. Prospects may be dimming for a widespread recovery or the market may be undergoing a bit of profit taking in high-flying commodities like gold and oil. The stronger dollar may weigh on grains as well today.
  
• July Wheat makes new low for the week; mvg avgs bearishPosted:10/07/2009 21:45 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  July Wheat sold off for the 3rd day in a row losing 1 1/4 cents on the day. This is the 3rd day this week of sub $6 closes and price remains below the 9,20 and 200 day moving averages but average volume is falling off as price deteriorates.
  
• July Beans nearly in the teens in early trade; close up 21 cents on the dayPosted:12/07/2009 22:21 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  July Beans rallied strongly on good volume and upside range extension. High today 1291 1/4..low 1248 1/4. Test of 13 still looks likely this week.
  
• July Corn ends up 5 1/4 but fails to take out significant resistance in 448 - 450 areaPosted:11/07/2009 18:53 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  July Corn continues to consolidate within the 432 to 450 range with approaches toward the latter well sold. That said, price remains over the 200 day moving average and recent price lows are tracking away from same despite being capped on the topside.
  
• July Wheat consolidating y/day losses; downside techsPosted:11/07/2009 0:58 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  July Wheat is consolidating w/in Monday's sell-off range. Short and medium term moving averages converging over price tho 200 day moving average below price at 606 7/16.
  
• July Wheat range tightens after sell-off Posted:10/07/2009 19:37 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  July Wheat closed up 15 3/4 cents today but fell short of taking out yesterday's high..or for that matter yesterday's low. The consolidation within the Monday sell-off range suggests more downside is in store for the contract. That said, there is still talk of accumulating grain positions as a non-correlated balance to the steep run up in equities. July Corn reversed higher today..and beans remain within a strong uptrend so the accumulation story may still have legs.
  
• July Beans make sold gains for 3 day running; test of 13 handle Posted:12/07/2009 19:31 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  When the phrase "beans in the teens" starts making the rounds, traders often take profits ahead of the attempt. Today's rally stopped short of beans in the teens, but barely so. If there is profit taking tomorrow it is more likely to be related to booking profits after 3 days up.
  
• July slams lower at close - down 25 cents at 598 per bushel..price target $5.76 per bushelPosted:12/07/2009 19:27 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  Measured move out of last week's post sell-off consolidation is down at 5.76 per bushel.
  
• July Wheat slams down thru 200 day moving average; trend reversal? Posted:12/07/2009 12:34 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  July Wheat broke out of the downside consolidation it had formed last Thursday and Friday and slammed thru the 200 day moving average at 609 13/16 and is now testing down near psychologically significant 6.00 per bushel level. There is a good bit of static support at the 6.00 handle with the market taking nearly 2 weeks to overcome the level in mid May.
  The sell-off volume increase on June 3rd, at about 94k, has not been repeated but the downside volume is higher than the late part of the rally.
  Is the rally done in Wheat? The short term uptrend line is broken, as is the 200 day moving average and short and medium term moving averages. No need to catch the falling knife.
  
• July Grains Update - Corn and Wheat in negative territory; Beans recovery to up 2 - 3 centsPosted:09/07/2009 22:11 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  July Wheat is trading just off day low levels but still remains w/in y/day's range. That said, the inverted pennant building during this consolidation is worrisome for Wheat bulls as its measured move objective is around 580.
  July Corn is actually nearing day high levels but remains in negative territory at 446, down 2 1/2. The daily chart however still looks productive for the topside.
  July Beans are trading near the top of today's range and have taken out y/day's high. The Bean uptrend is well intact having crossed the 50% retracement of the sell-off from June to November 2008 at 1222 5/8.
  
• July Grains, C, W, S, look to open slightly lower this morning after a strong rally y/dayPosted:11/07/2009 0:08 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  There's been a good bit of volatility in the grains after Wheat and Corn rallied strongly through their 200 day moving averages last week. Beans have been tracking higher since they surpassed their 200 day moving average on May 1.
  Talk of accumulation by hedge funds has subsided for and is being replaced by rumors of the Chinese stockpiling grains while the dollar is weak. Whatever is driving the market, it does not pay to fight the tape.
  
• July Corn undergoes another reversal day; up 16 cents at 448 1/2Posted:10/07/2009 2:10 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  Grains opened higher this morning and tracked up throughout the day - though today's volume was only about 60 of y/day's volume. The 20 day moving average at 427 13/16 provides support in increasingly volatile trade. The 200 day moving average is at 437 1/2...well below today's closing level.
  
• July Wheat pullback for slingshot higherPosted:10/07/2009 5:59 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  July Wheat is off 15 cents today, pulling back from y/day's spectacular rally but confining losses in the upper end of y/day's range. The 20 day moving average is well below price (615 7/8 vs 659 1/2) and will serve as support should the sell-off catch fire. However, a sell-off after y/day's run seems unlikely; instead, a couple of days of consolidation is likely before the next leg higher.
  
• July Beans stay w/in y/day's range; down 15centsPosted:09/07/2009 20:35 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  After y/day's 34 cent rally, July Beans are off 15 cents. Today's price range remains firmly w/in yesterday's range and at the upper end of that range, suggesting the futures are consolidating gains and may shoot higher still. Yesterday's rally shot up to the 50% retracement of the June to December 2008 sell-off. Successive closes over the 1220 level will set up a challenge of 1321-22 area - which would be a 2/3 retrace level and open scope for a run at last June's high of 1650 per bushel.
  
• July Corn consolidating y/day gains; - 2 centsPosted:12/07/2009 23:46 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  After y/day's strong rally, July Corn is selling of a bit but still remains above the trend-changing 200 day moving average at 439 1/16 - which is now support. The market opened lower but has been eking out gains through much of the session. If the 439 1/4 level holds, further gains can be expected in the next couple of sessions.
  
• July Wheat jumps 6 3/4 cents as commodities continue to catch firePosted:12/07/2009 22:25 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  The July Wheat rally rounds out the boom in the Grains this week. Today's trade was the 3rd day of gains over the trend-reversing 200 day moving average. Volume was nearly 42k in the move higher and it's clear that an extension on the topside is in the cards.
  Hedge funds are accumulating non-correlated positions as they hunt for bargain basement financial positions. That makes sense because even cents on the dollar for mortgage dependent positions can blow up quickly, having knock-on effects in equities, bonds and related markets. The non-correlated trade should only get more lucrative as funds pile in now that Beans, Corn and Wheat have jumped over their long term downtrends.
  
• July Corn takes a stab at 200 day moving averagePosted:11/07/2009 12:01 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  July Corn rallied 7 1/2 cents today, closing just off the high at 436 1/4 (high = 437). The 200 day moving average is at 440 11/16. Clearing resistance at the 445ish level brought in sustained buying and a close over the 200 day moving average next week should bring in volume, upside trade.
  
• July Beans make a come back - up 6 cents to 1185 in low volume tradePosted:09/07/2009 16:33 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  July Beans took a bit of a shellacking y/day, losing more than 11 cents but rallied today in late and electronic trade. The market sold off mid-day but underwent a bit of short-covering rally into the weekend. The uptrend in July Beans is still intact after having shifted into high gear one the 200 day moving average was overcome on 30 April. Daily charts show a clear accumulation pattern and short, medium and longer term moving averages support current price gains. Add to this persistent talk of hedge fund, i-bank and ETF demand and the accumulation pattern looks set to continue. Support on Monday is at 1172 11/16, 1151 and 1150. The upside has been capped at the 1200 level but that looks set to fall next week.
  
• July Soybeans undergo sharp reversal - close down 11 1/4Posted:12/07/2009 15:15 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  Beans were on a tear higher this morning but reversed sharply and ended the day down 11 1/4 cents at 1175 1/4. The sell-off was not deep enough to reverse the uptrend.
  
• July Wheat is on a tear after closing thru 200d mvg avg y/dayPosted:10/07/2009 11:27 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  July Wheat tested price slightly below the 200 day moving average this morning but has since shot higher, taking out y/days's high in quick order.
  The 200 day moving average is at 619 11/16 today and Wheat is trading at its highest level since January 2009. The last time Wheat traded above its 200 day moving average was in August 2008..after the market had peaked in July. The 200 day moving average is often considered trend changing.
  
• July Corn resistance 434 3/4 and up at 444 15/16Posted:10/07/2009 7:38 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  July Corn shot higher out of the gate this morning with price running from 424 1/4 to 434 in quick order. Price has pulled back now and is consolidating between 430 3/4 and 432 3/4 but looks poised to test higher push thur 434 3/4 resistance today. Volume just over 40k.
  
• CRB Index gains on Oil Patch rally, strong Nickel performance, mixed grains Posted:10/07/2009 9:22 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  The CRB Index tracked higher today with the Oil, Gas, Heating Oil and Natural Gas (nearly 40% weight in Index) all higher. September Nickel rallied nearly 5% today an Cocoa was up nearly 4%. On the downside, Copper lost nearly 2%, Sugar better than 1% on the day. July Beans were up 1 1/2 cents but July Corn was down 1 1/2 cents.
  
• July Corn futures slightly lower - inside day formedPosted:11/07/2009 4:51 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  July Corn futures range remains wholly within y/day's range with selling once again capping trade after a late session push to 4.32. Daily charts are still productive for the upside but consolidation is smoothing the uptrend. 200 day moving average at 4.42.
  
• July Wheat up thru 200 day moving averagePosted:09/07/2009 23:06 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  July Wheat futures are on another tear today with strong volume - estimated at 37k - as the grains rally continues. As with July Beans, there's a good bit of speculation that hedge funds are taking large long positions both on recovery hopes and the non-correlated nature of these markets. Today is the 4th day of higher Wheat prices. The last time July Wheat traded at these levels was in January 2009 on a continuation of the brutal sell-off that commenced last July.
  
• July Beans off day's best levels after test of $12 bucksPosted:10/07/2009 7:36 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  July Beans made a run at the 12.00 handle today and traded 12 3/4. There is talk of the Bean rally being driven primarily by hedge funds moving back into the commodities space. The the pattern of accumulation since 1 May - the first day beans traded over their 200 day moving average in months - suggests very strong buying on pullbacks - in short, position accumulation.
  12.23 1/4n marks the 50% retracement of the June 2008 to December 08 sell off. If non-correlated markets continue to bleed out volatility, the 50% retrace level..indeed any overhead resistance will be short lived.
  
• Beans up better than 20 cents in front month; rally set up buy signal for tomorrowPosted:12/07/2009 23:31 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  July Beans ran up 20 cents today and created and outside day, up ...good buy signal for short term traders.
  
• Dollar weakness theory blows up as grain prices reverse higherPosted:11/07/2009 2:11 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  Corn, Beans and Wheat prices have all reversed higher this morning despite persistent reports that the weak dollar was weighing on the market. If a fundamental event were influencing price...that event may be the much higher than expected consumer confidence data. Shorter term traders appear to be following the month or so long uptrend, without regard for direction the dollar is taking.
  
• July Wheat rebounds into positive territoryPosted:10/07/2009 19:24 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  July Wheat came under a bit of selling pressure right out of the gate but has since reversed higher testing price near the 200 day moving average at nearly $6.22. The month long uptrend is intact and a close over the 200 day moving average will pull more buying interest. Short term traders may fade the move toward same.
  
• WASDE release dates 2009 :June 10, July 10, August 12, September 11, October 9, November 10, and December 10Posted:10/07/2009 13:25 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report provides USDA's comprehensive forecasts of supply and demand for major U.S. and global crops and U.S. livestock.
  
• July Beans remain in uptrend, volume fallingPosted:10/07/2009 1:10 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  July Soybeans sold off on Friday in thin markets but the uptrend remains intact with futures holding over short and medium term moving averages into the close. Contract volume in the July Beans was just over 9,700 in regular trading hours in holiday thinned, on exchange trade.
  
• U.S. Sugar may build Cane-Ethanol plant Posted:09/07/2009 16:15 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
  Sugarcane Ethanol - the fuel that helped make Brazil energy independent - may indeed be coming to the U.S..  U.S. Sugar is exploring the notion of getting into the cane-ethanol business.  Recall last week ADM is also in a partnership with a Brazilian firm to produce same.