CA: Canadian Data Real Time News items

Update: Canadian Ivey PMI disappoints estimatesPosted:10/07/2009 10:14 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The November Canadian Ivey Purchasing Manager Index now stands at 40.2 a major fall from the 52.2 in October and well below the consensus estimate of a retreat to 50. By comparison the Ivey PMI was 58.7 in November 2007, and 52.8 in November 2006. The November 2008 Price Index also plunged to 51.6 from 78.5 prior, Inventories plummeted to 35.8 from 52.4, Deliveries were down to 48.4 from 49.2 prior, and finally Employment fell to 42.2 from 48.5 in October. The Canadian Ivey PMI unlike US ISM is based on end of month data and covers the complete Canadian economy, including the public and private sectors. It is not seasonally adjusted and shows responses to one question: âWere your purchases last month in dollars higher, the same, or lower than the previous month?â As with US ISM, the 50 level is pivotal - below 50 indicates contraction, above 50 indicates expansion.
Canada Economic and Fiscal Update to be Released Thursday AfternoonPosted:09/07/2009 17:55 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
Rarely released under embargo an exception has been made for this Update largely because it is widely expected to include details on economic stimulus package along with a fiscal update. "Our system is solid" said Flaherty and adding that Budget 2007's tax reductions were a permanent stimulus to the Canadian economy unlike the bailout in the United States.
September Canadian International Transactionsi in Securities Beat EstimatesPosted:10/07/2009 22:03 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
Inflows: -C$0.267bln Outflows:-C$0.665bln Foreign investors in Canadian Securities reduced their holding by C$0.267bln from a revised retreat of C$0.833bln (previously reported -C$0.730bln) beating the consensus estimate for a C$1.35bln retreat. This is the third consecutive decline and was led by foreign divestment of Canadian bonds on secondary markets. The sell-off, the first in 2008 was partially offset by an increase in holdings of money market paper (up C$1.028bln) and Canadian Equities (up C$2.49bln) in spite of the largest monthly decline in stock prices. The bulk of the equity investment was concentrated on banking and financial shares as investors fled energy, mining and tech stocks. Following a similar pattern Canadian investors also divested their holding in Foreign securities by C$0.665bln following a revised increase of C$0.217bln prior (previously reported C$0.172bln). The retreat was the result of a reduction in foreign bond holdings, down C$2.8bln, which exceeded the investment in foreign money market instruments up C$0.552mln and equitie.
CAAMP Survey: 35% Canadian Expect Housing Prices to FallPosted:17/07/2009 22:31 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
According to the annual Fall Survey on Consumer Perceptions, 35% of Canadians now expect housing prices to fall, up from 15% last year. The survey conducted in mid-October was released by the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals (CAAMP) today. âAlmost one-half of those surveyed gave a neutral answer while the number who thought prices would go up fell from 40 per cent to 20 per cent,â wrote CAAMP in a news release. âWesterners, who have endured particularly hot housing markets, are most negative, and in British Columbia, 48 per cent of those surveyed said they expect prices to fall, far above the national average.â The CAAMP survey also found that only 36% of respondents were aware of the federal governmentâs recent decision to stop guaranteeing mortgages with 40-yr amortization periods, and/or less than 5% down payments. While only 17% were aware that the federal government had decided to stop guaranteeing mortgages to individuals with low credit rating. On the flip side, 60% said they strongly or somewhat supported the changes.
Update: Canadian Business Confidence Down 13.5 pointsPosted:10/07/2009 10:52 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
Q3 Business confidence is down 13.5 points in Q3 according to the Conference Board of Canada. Business leaders are now more concerned about the economy and their financial situations than they had been in the summer. - Nearly 70% of respondents believed that the economy would be in worse shape in 6 months and 12% said conditions would improve - 22% of respondents said they expect their firmâs financial position to improve over the next 6 months while 26.8% believe it will worsen - 25.6% of respondents believe their firmâs profitability will improve over the next 6 months compared to 31.7% of respondents who said profitability will deteriorate. - 25.8% of business leaders believe it is a good time to invest in their plant or purchase new equipment . - On the question of what factors were adversely affecting the level of their investments â weak market demand â was reported by 43.4% of respondents - 27.7% reported difficulty in obtaining corporate financing as a negative factor influencing their investment decisions - 7.2% reported weaker commodity prices and the depreciation in the Canadian dollar - 45.7% of respondents reported that their firms are operating at, above or close to full capacity. - Firms operating substantially below capacity has increased from 12.7% to 22.2% from the fourth quarter of 2007 to an autumn survey - A positive outlook is that inflationary expectations have dropped substantially - Over a summer survey, a change of 40.4% to 60.5% of respondents reported that prices over the next 6 months will advance at an annual rate of 2% or less increased by over 20 percentage points
Canadian Index of Business Confidence Plunged 13.5 points in Q3.Posted:12/07/2009 22:15 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The Index of Business Confidence plummeted 13.5 points in Q3 â marking the fifth quarterly decline in a row. The index has fallen nearly 29 points since Q2 2007 and now stands at 78. The index has only fallen below that level twice in the past â once in Q3 2001 and during the 1990-1991 year. The survey by the Conference Board of Canada was conducted over the first 3 weeks of October, 2008, during the financial and equity market turmoil.
Canadian October Housing Starts Beat Estimate But DownPosted:14/07/2009 5:48 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
Canadian Housing starts remained strong, moderating to 211.8k units in October from 218.6k units prior and beating the consensus estimate of a decline to 205k units. âHousing starts remained strong in October and are consistent with our new home construction forecast for 2008,â wrote Bob Dugan, chief economist at CMHCâs Market Analysis Centre in a new release this morning. âThe slight decrease in housing starts is the result of declines in both single-detached and multiple starts in October.â Y-o-y urban starts eased 4.2% in October, compared to September. Urban multiples fell 6% from September to October to 115,300 units. Urban single starts moderated 1.1% to 69,300 units in October from September. For the first 10 months of 2008, actual starts in rural and urban areas combined were down approximately 1.6% compared to the same period last year. Year-to-date actual starts in urban areas have decreased by an estimated 1.3%.
September Canadian IPPI&RMPI Beat Consensus EstimatesPosted:18/07/2009 4:03 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
IPPI m-o-m : -1.2% IPPI Ex-Petroleum and Coal products: -0.8% RMPI m-o-m: -7.2 RMPI Ex-mineral fuels: -1.6 Month-on-Month, Canadian September Industrial Product Price Index dropped 1.2% from a revised 0.1% decline prior (previously reported 0.2% drop) beating the consensus estimate for a 0.4% slide. The overall decline though led by a 4.5% drop in Petroleum and Coal product prices, also reflected the 0.8% drop in IPPI Excluding Petroleum and Coal products. Prices for Primary Metal products were down 3.3% on lower global demand while Chemical products fell 2.5% on retreating crude prices. Unlike previous months September IPPI was not affected by CAD/USD exchange rates as CAD lost 0.4% of its value in September on top of the 4.1% decline in August. Excluding the difference in exchange rate IPPI would have fallen 1.3% instead of 1.2%. Y-o-y IPPI increased 8% from the 8.5% pace recorded last month and more significantly the first slowdown in six months, potentially heralding the expected retreat in CPI over the course of Q4. The September Raw Material Price Index fell 7.2% following a 7.7% plunge prior and more than the consensus estimate for a 5% drop. The continuing downward trend was due to substantial declines in Mineral Fuel prices which were down 11% in September following an 11.3% drop prior. Excluding Mineral Fuels the RMPI was down 1.6% following a 1.8% retreat prior. Overall raw materials cost plants 14.8% more y-o-y, again a substantial slowdown from the 22.6% increase prior. The slowdown was led by Non-ferrous Metals down 21.7% y-o-y and Wood products down 2.8% y-o-y, as Mineral Fuels, Vegetable Products, Non-metallic Minerals and Animal products all increased y-o-y.
August Canadian Trade Surplus Expands on Lower Imports Down 5.8%, Exports Down 1.6%Posted:11/07/2009 5:46 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
Canada's August Trade Balance expanded to C$5.8bln from a revised C$4.2bln prior (previously reported C$4.9bln) out pacing expectations for a further contraction to C$4.4bln. However the expansion was the result of an unexpectedly sharp drop in Imports offsetting the more-than-expected decline in Exports. Canada's trade surplus with the US expanded to C$8.6bln from C$8.4bln prior, while the trade surplus with Japan jumped a record 26.3% to C$1.1bln, from C$8.9mln prior. Exports declined for the first time since December 2007 by 1.6% following a revised 0.4% increase prior (previously reported 2.2% increase) falling below the consensus estimate of 0.5% dip. The August decline was the result of a volume decrease as export prices remained relatively unchanged. The main driver was the decline in exports of energy products down 9.7% on a 3.2% decrease in volume and a 6.6% decrease in price. Exports to the US, representing 75.4% of total exports fell 3.9% on lower demand for energy products. While exports to countries other than the US surged 6% from a revised 2.8% prior. Imports also dropped 5.8% the steepest decline in 7 years and the first decline since March on lower imports of energy and automotive products. The bulk of the decline was on volume down 6.9% as prices increased 1.1%. Imports from the US fell 5.8% (coincidentally). After 2 consecutive increases imports of energy products fell 24.9% in August with the drop led by a 26.1% decline in volume while prices increased 1.6%.
September Canadian Existing Home Sales up 3%Posted:17/07/2009 1:36 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
Canadian existing home sales were up 3% in September, as buyers rushed in ahead of the governmentâs new mortgage insurance rules, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. The average resale price, however, fell 6.2% to C$315,461 from a year earlier, the association announced in a statement today. The new government rules pushing home sales will take effect this month. Released by the federal finance department in July the rules specify that government mortgage-insurance is only available for people making a minimum down payment of 5% of the home value and mortgages with a 35 year term or less.
Canadian September Employment Adds Unprecedented 107K on Part-Time, Unemployment UnchangedPosted:10/07/2009 9:26 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
Canadian September Employment defied prediction adding a shocking 106.9k jobs for the first time in 32 years following the unexpected 15.2k gain prior and far out-pacing the modest 10k increase expected. However the bulk of the increase was in part-time employment up 97k for a 9 month increase of 194k or 1.1%, in sharp contrast with the first nine months of 2007 when the 275k increase or 1.7% gain in employment was mostly full-time. Employment was up 1.1% in the Goods Producing with a more modest 0.5% increase in Service Producing Industries. Employment gains by industry were widespread. The larges increases were seen in Health Care & Social Assistance (up 2% or 40k jobs) followed by Business, Building and Other Support Services (up 3% adding 19.8) and Manufacturing (up 1% adding 19.7k) For the first time since 1989 there was surge (up 44.8k) in part-time employment among youth 15-24 in September traditionally the month fewer youth seek employment. Youth employment was concentrated around Manufacturing, Agriculture and Business, Building and Support Services. While 45k women aged 25-54 gained employment "out of personal preference" according to a Stats Can analyst, in Health Care & Social Assistance, Agriculture and Manufacturing. Meanwhile a surge in the number of people joining the Labour Force offset the increase in Employment keeping the Unemployment rate unchanged at 6.1% beating expectations of a slight increase to 6.2%.
Q2 Canadian Industrial Capacity Utilization Drops to 78.9% Nearing 1991 Recessionary LevelsPosted:10/07/2009 16:52 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
In Q2 Canadian industries operated at 78.9% of their capacity down from a revised 79.6% in Q1, (previously reported 79.8%) and below the consensus estimate for a 0.3% dip to 79.5%. This represents the fourth consecutive quarterly decline as a result of weak exports. The last time Capacity use came close to this level was during the first 3 quarters of 1992 when it reached 78.6% and is just 1.1% above the lowest capacity use recorded at 77.7% during the 1991 recession. The reduction in the rate of production was less pronounced in Q2 - down 0.5% compared to the 6.1% prior -as increased capacity use in Machinery Manufacturing (up 4% to84.5%) and Petroleum and Coal products (up 5.2% to 82.9%) softened the declines in Manufacturing. The largest declines in Manufacturing, down 0.5% to 76.7% from 77.2% prior, came from the reduction in Transportation Equipment down 2.4% to 74.5% as a result of the slow-down in US demand for automobile products. Wood product Manufacturing fell 3.3% to 65% the second lowest rate on record. While plastic and rubber products fell 3% largely on lower output of tires and plastic products for automobiles. The drop in utilization rates was particularly pronounced in the Forestry, mining and electrical power sectors. Forestry was down 4.3% to 74.8%, the second lowest rate on record, on reduced demand from the US. In the mining sector the rate fell to73.1% as increases in mining production could not offset the sharp decline in drilling operations as natural gas producers reduced output in Q2 to reduce their inventory levels. Capacity utilization in the Electrical Power sector fell 1.5% to 84.7% in Q2 due to moderate weather conditions.
September Canadian Housing Starts Remain Strong: CMHCPosted:14/07/2009 10:43 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
September Canadian Housing Starts, released by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation unexpectedly gained slightly edging up to 217.6k from a revised 217.4k prior (previously reported 211k) defying the consensus estimate of a slight decline to 209k. The increase was led by multiple family units. âHousing starts remained at a high level in September, with construction activity again staying above the 200,000 unit threshold.â said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHCâs Market Analysis Centre. âHigher starts of multiple family homes were behind the rise in new home construction activity in September.â Urban multiples rose in September by 5.5% to 122,500 units, while Urban single starts fell 8.1% to 70,000 units in September compared to August. Septemberâs annual rate of urban starts went up or remained unchanged in all regions of Canada, except Ontario, where housing starts decreased by 6.6% to 80,900 units. For the first nine months of 2008, actual starts in rural and urban areas combined were down an estimated 5.7 %, compared to the same period last year. Y-o-y actual starts in urban areas have fallen by about 0.8%.