FX,Asia Real Time News items

FX Asian summary: Posted:24/08/2009 7:25 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The Asian market responded to a strong equity market rally following Friday's surge in US home sales and upbeat comments on the global economy from Fed Chairman Bernanke.
The shift in sentiment gave the market fresh impetus to sell JPY and USD in favour of commodity bloc currencies and EUR and GBP.
EUR/USD maintained a hold above 1.4300 and AUD/USD traded above the 0.8400 handle. USD/JPY forced a move back towards 95.00, where good exporter offers capped gains, while the JPY crosses held up amid strong Japanese interest, with EUR/JPY forcing a move above 136.00.
There was evidence of profit taking in to the Asian close by some JPY and USD shorts, but early indications of a strong European open should encourage healthy speculative interest ahead.
FX update: Yen eases as EU PMI data underpins marketsPosted:21/08/2009 9:06 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
JPY traded on an easier footing in eary European trade.
USD/JPY traded back in to 94.00 and the JPY crosses headed higher as the Shanghai Composite rallied over 1.5%.
The market has taken its guidance from China even though regional Asian markets and European stocks have headed lower. Europe is only marginally lower however, and eurozone PMI data is expected to underpin after it surprised on the topside.
EUR/JPY traded up to 134.48 highs, but met good Japanese supply on strength, while GBP/JPY moved briefly above 155.00. Meanwhile, AUD/JPY was forced up to 78.08 as fund names were steady buyers from 77.40, with bargain noted following overnight losses.
The JPY crosses are expected to remain choppy, while USD/JPY could see option strike influence amid a congestion of expiry interest from 94.00 up to 94.75. On the downside there are 93.00 strikes, but sentiment would have to deteriorate significantly for this interest to influence.
FX Asian summary: Diminished risk appetite after BOC reportsPosted:21/08/2009 7:35 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The Asian market saw a rise in risk aversion following reports that China may be planning to increase its capital requirements for banks.
The news caused jitters among Asian investers and prompted a safe haven bid for the region debt market and Treasuries and boosted the USD and JPY.
USD/JPY traded in to 93.49 as a result and the JPY crosses also succumbed to good selling pressure in thin trade, which force EUR/JPY in to 133.00 and saw AUD-JPY trade in to 76.80.
The European majors were soft, with EUR/USD moving back in to 1.4210 and Cable hitting 1.6418 lows. The exception was the CHF, which firmed up amid general swissy demand, which saw USD/CHF hit 1.0621 lows before buyers came in, while EUR/CHF challenged the 200-dma at 1.5135.
Elsewhere, the commodity bloc currencies weakened as a result of the rise in risk aversion, which saw AUD-USD hit 0.8217 and USD/CAD rally to 1.0942.
FX Asian summary: Firmer equities heightens risk appetitePosted:20/08/2009 7:18 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
Asian FX keyed off Asian equities, which traded on a firmer footing after the leading Chinese index moved higher.
This encouraged JPY and USD selling pressure in favour of commodity bloc and risk sensitive currencies, like EUR and GBP. Cable traded up to 1.6564 and EUR/USD traded up to 1.4256 and maintained a firmer tone in to the Asian close.
USD/JPY traded in close proximity to 94.40 after edging higher over the Tokyo morning, while the JPY crosses benefited on light Japanese speculative activity and were moderately higher.
Elsewhere, AUD/USD managed to sustain a hold above 0.8300, although it struggled to overome good offers from 0.8320.
Overall, trading volumes were much lower than in previous sessions, with the market still showing some nervousness after yesterday's calls that China had official entered a bear market.
FX update: JPY climbs on flight to safetyPosted:19/08/2009 8:38 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
JPY posted a moderate rally as early European accounts responded to a fall in China's SSEC.
The index fell by as much as 4% at one point, which forced USD/JPY down to 94.15 and triggered stop losses via EUR/JPY through 133.20 and 133.00 to hit 132.58 lows.
GBP/JPY losses also accelerated to trade in to 155.00 and AUD/JPY triggered stops to below 77.50 and extended to 77.07.
USD/JPY is expected to find a modicum of support ahead of 94.00 amid Japanese account bids, while dollar buy backs should also alleviate some of the pressure coming from the JPY crosses.
FX Asian summary: Slow trade, lack of direction keep markets range-boundPosted:19/08/2009 7:30 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The Asian market was fairly cautious, with commodities and equity markets holding in familiar territory.
The lack of impetus for equity markets hampered speculative activity and an early JPY sell-off ran its course and profit taking picked up. USD/JPY pulled back in to 94.50 and EUR/JPY traded under 133.50 after stalling just ahead of 134.50.
Meanwhile, the USD maintained a supportive tone after light short covering was noted as EUR/USD failed to move through 1.4175 offers and Cable rejected the 1.6600 area.
The commodity bloc currencies were fairly stable, with AUD/USD supported in to 0.8250, while USD/CAD remained in close proximity to 1.1050 after support came in around 1.1000.
Focus remains on the Shanghai index and this is expected to drive price action in risk and speculative activity.
FX Asian summary: USD pares gains ahead of FOMCPosted:11/08/2009 7:12 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar consolidated recent gains in Asia, with trading said to be subdued during the session with traders waiting for the FOMC decision, US retail and industrial production data and the US Treasury auction.
EUR/USD has traded a range of 1.4124 to 1.4158 with dealers reluctant to sell EUR/USD due to rumors of an Asian sovereign bid at 1.4100.
GBP/USD has consolidated in a range of 1.6447 to 1.6523. Better-than-expected BRC retail sales and RICS house price survey failed to substantially lift the GBP.
AUD/USD was capped at 0.8382 and fell to lows of 0.8320 with traders reporting AUD/JPY sales in response to the lower-than-expected China industrial production data.
USD/JPY fell from 97.14 down to 96.56 on exporter selling and in reaction to weaker-than-expected China industrial production data.
Overall, USD strength continues to be maintained by US bond yields which will have to head another leg higher to underpin the USD momentum.
FX update: JPY eases on mounting risk appetitePosted:10/08/2009 11:04 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
JPY maintained an easier tone, with USD/JPY underpinned on a 97 handle. The pair traded in to the 97.50 area in early Europe, but was unable to rechallenge the Asian peak of 97.72.
Exporters have taken advantage of the lofty USD/JPY levels and this tempered further upward momentum. However, risk remains on the topside, with Friday's US NFP boosting yields after the release reinforced expectations that the US economy may be on a more solid footing.
The JPY crosses have remained supported largely due to the dollar pairing, which left EUR/JPY close to 138.00 and AUD/JPY close to 81.75. GBP/JPY underperformed due to under performanc via GBP and the cross traded in 162.00 versus earlier highs around 162.50.
FX update: Yen firms ahead of US labour dataPosted:07/08/2009 10:59 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
JPY traded on a firmer footing as intra-day accounts pared back speculative positioning ahead of the US NFP release.
USD/JPY traded back in to the 95.00 area, where good size option strikes are due for expiry today. However, there are a congestion of strikes layered all the way up to 96.50 and include interest at 95.25, 95.50, 95.85 and 96.00.
EUR/JPY traded in to the 136.50 area after running out of steam above 137.00 and
GBP/JPY traded in to 159.00 amid broad based GBP selling following Thursday's BOE policy decision.
AUD/JPY tracked the movement via EUR/JPY and traded down to 79.50 versus European opening levels above 80.00.
FX update: JPY hits session lows Posted:31/07/2009 10:05 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
JPY has fallen to fresh lows for the session, making a calendar-day low versus the EUR, GBP and AUD, amongst other currencies.
Data today showed that the Japanese economy had slipped into a record level of deflation, with core CPI falling 1.7% y/y in June. This is a bad sign for the economy and will only encourage yield-seeking investment flows out of Japan, at least while global risk appetite persists.
Other data showed unemployment in Japan rising in June to its highest level since 2003 while, more encouraging, the July PMI manufacturers survey showed its first reading above the 50.0 "boom-bust" threshold in 17-months.
USD/JPY punched through a minor stop level zone around 95.40-50, and its 50-day moving average at 95.53, and has made a new calendar-day like many of the yen crosses. A test of Thursday's high of 95.88 and the 96.00 look likely, though with the USD likely to underperform other currencies, the greater potential for yen losses will likely be against the likes of the AUD and EUR.
FX Asian summary: USD pressured on waning risk aversion, rising equitiesPosted:31/07/2009 7:32 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar came under broad selling pressure in Asia.
The move lower was linked to a wide number of factors including talk of large dollar sales for the London fix on Friday due to index re-weightings, with dollar selling also linked to a WSJ report noting worry over China's treasury purchases after the soft response to the US auction this week.
Some traders just linked dollar weakness to a fresh wave of risk appetite that bolstered currencies as the Asian markets rallied, with the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index rising to a fresh 11-month high.
EUR/USD rallied from Tokyo opening levels of 1.4085 to highs of 1.4137 while USD/JPY eased from 95.59 to 95.25, weighed down by exporter sales.
US Treasury yields were slightly higher on the firm global stock markets and the China treasury purchase concerns.
Commodity prices including oil, gold and copper were all broadly higher on risk demand.
FX update: JPY mixed amidst strong stocksPosted:30/07/2009 10:06 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
JPY is mixed in European trade despite firmer European equity markets. USD/JPY came under pressure amid good selling out of Asia, which forced an intra-day low of 94.83 before cross-related flows provided a modicum of support.
Medium term accounts were noted among the USD/JPY seller, which related to an equity market trade, but demand for GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY underpinned and the pair may attempt to trade back in to the 95.20-30 area. GBP and AUD both responded to firmer equities and retain their high correlation to asset markets, which saw GBP/JPY trade in to 156.75 and AUD/JPY trade in 78.20.
EUR/JPY is being hampered by EUR/USD heaviness and traded at 133.22, before better than expected German jobless underpinned. EUR/JPY is expected to run in to offers just ahead of 134.00, where good plain vanilla option strikes are maturing today, while USD/JPY expiries are noted at 94.70, 95.00 and 95.35, which should result in further choppy price action.
Meanwhile, a UK clearer just bought a good amount of overnight USD/JPY strikes at 95.60.
FX Asian summary: USD corrects slightly alongside Asian equitiesPosted:30/07/2009 7:16 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar saw a slight correction in Asia after the strong gains Wednesday in NY trading but fresh weakness in the Shanghai Composite stock index, renewed concerns over a further correction in China's stock market bubble.
PBOC comments that it would maintain appropriately loose monetary policy was unable to stem profit-taking in stocks in China with pressure emerging in other regional markets including Taiwan and Hong Kong.
EUR/USD was bolstered off lows of 1.4009 by buying from China that saw the currency rise to 1.4070 before running out of momentum as regional stocks eased.
USD/JPY saw early gains to 95.31 but failed to break above the NY high of 95.36 with the market caught long anticipating large USD fix demand, resulting in a retreat back to 94.83.
NZD/USD slumped sharply in early Asia from 0.6580 to 0.6484 after the RBNZ kept rates steady at 2.50% but maintained a dovish tone and warned about the strength of the currency.
Commodities were mixed with a slight bounce in gold and copper, correcting losses made Wednesday but with oil easing further and still remaining under $64.
Looking ahead, the US auction later Thursday and US GDP on Friday remain the next key focus of the market.
FX Asian summary: USD pares yesterday's gainsPosted:29/07/2009 7:15 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar consolidated Tuesday's gains in Asian trading with the market reluctant to take on fresh positions into the month-end and ahead of US durable goods and GDP data.
Month-end flows dominated in Asian stocks as well with profit-taking emerging after the rally over the last two weeks that took many Asian markets to highs for the year.
Commodities also suffered on profit-taking with copper down over 2% in Shanghai and oil holding under $67.00.
EUR/USD edged up from morning lows of 1.4142 to 1.4196, lifted by Asian buying. USD/JPY was capped at 94.68 to fall back to 94.21 on last minute flows from Japanese exporters. Other currencies had a tighter range, consolidating within the ranges traded on Tuesday.
FX Asian summary: USD broadly falls after early gainsPosted:28/07/2009 7:52 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar attempted gains early in the Asian session as profit-taking taking emerged in commodities, Asian equities and in the currencies with an eye to month end.
However, the hawkish tone of comments from RBA Stevens reversed those moves with the AUD/USD hitting fresh highs for the year around 0.8290 and commodities reversing early losses to post gains.
Asian stocks were mixed but Treasury yields pushed higher after the RBA statements. Adding to the positive global growth story was news that Merrill Lynch raised its China GDP forecast to 8.7% from 8.0%.
Fresh concerns over a bubble in China's housing and stock market were noted and may have prompted the slight retreat in Shanghai stocks and RBA Stevens did warn of a housing bubble in Australia.
EUR/USD, after falling to 1.4219 before the RBA comments, rallied to 1.4266 highs subsequently. USD/JPY was in a tight range of 94.93-95.18 during the session with exporter sales helping cap gains.
FX update: JPY hits new lows vs some 'risk currencies'Posted:27/07/2009 11:05 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The JPY has made fresh trend lows agasint some "risk currencies" today, with AUD/JPY, for instance, making a near four-week peak of 78.23.
EUR/JPY, meanwhile, took out its high from last week and has logged a 25-day high of 135.65. Cross flows have led USD/JPY, which has been lifted back above the 95.00 level, but the pair remains comfortably below last week's high and upside progress is a comparative struggle with the dollar itself heavy against most other currencies.
The launch of new Toshin funds in Japan, yield-seeking foreign investment funds, will help persuade many interbank market participants to remain bearish of the yen, along with the backdrop of risk appetite. There is talk of there being strong Toshin-related demand at the London fix today. USD/JPY but stops are reported from 95.30.
FX Asian summary: Dollar pressured on mounting risk appetitePosted:27/07/2009 7:26 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar remained broadly pressured in Asia with risk appetite fueled by increased optimism on the global economic outlook.
Asian stocks were broadly higher, with the MSCI Asia index ex-Japan hitting fresh 10-month highs.
Of note is the upcoming record $115 bln US bond auction only because the dollar has shown a propensity to weaken just prior to the auctions until the results are known.
EUR/USD fell to early lows of 1.4172 before bouncing back to 1.4237 highs. USD/JPY was contained in a surprisingly tight range around 94.67-93.
Commodity prices were well bid with oil extending gains, copper bid and aluminum prices rising limit up in Shanghai as global economic optimism prevailed.
Comments from Fed's Bernanke, including support for Treasury's strong dollar policy had little impact. US bond yields edged up ahead of this week's supply and in reaction to the regional stock gains.
The cumulative USD short positions in the IMM for the major currencies shows the highest shorts in a year as the dollar bearish sentiment continues.
FX Asian summary: Majors consolidate after USD surges on weak earningsPosted:24/07/2009 7:51 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
Currencies largely consolidated in Asian trading after the sharp recovery in the USD in late NY attributed to the markets disappointment in the earnings results from Amazon and Microsoft.
Heavy stop-loss selling emerged in EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD, and with no major releases in the Asian session, these currencies consolidated in tight ranges.
USD/JPY fell from 95.00 at the open to lows of 94.59, weighed down by the failure of large Toshin demand and with exporter hedging interest still helping to cap rallies.
EUR/USD pivoted in a band around 1.4150, trading a range of 1.4135-67 after the break under 1.4180 triggered stops in late NY.
Asian stocks were broadly higher, mirroring the strong U.S. close and aided by the positive 2.3% rise in South Korea GDP but profit-taking and a fall in DJIA futures helped temper gains.
Similarly, US Treasury yields retreated on profit-taking and the retreat in DJIA futures. Similar profit-taking capped oil and gold into the weekend as well.
FX Asian summary: Funds move out of JPYPosted:23/07/2009 7:46 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The Asian session was dominated by a strong bout of selling of JPY against both the USD and EUR with hedge and model funds behind the move which was also fueled by stops.
USD/JPY rallied from lows around 93.50 to highs of 94.32 while EUR-JPY rallied from 132.91 to highs of 134.30. EUR/USD, as a result of the cross gains, rose from 1.4200 to highs of 1.4243 though traders subsequently reported that long term holders of EUR started to pare holdings on rallies.
There was no apparent direct catalyst for the move but anticipated Toshin fund issuance on Friday helped underpin support for the JPY weakness.
Japan's trade surplus widened to Y508 bln in June, the first rise in 20 months.
Asian stock markets were mostly higher, with the Nikkei reversing early losses as exporter stocks rose in line with JPY weakness.
FX update: USD/JPY sees high volumePosted:22/07/2009 13:05 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
USD/JPY is being restricted by good two way flows.
There is increasing talk of large bids around the 93.25-30 area from a quasi-official account, while good supply is noted at the 93.50-55 area from intra-day accounts and technical-backed funds. Stop losses are being protected at 93.20 and more are noted below the 93.00 level.
The fall-out in USD/JPY triggered two bearish calls from US houses. One prominent technical desk is short at 93.55 targeting 87.00, with a stop at 94.95, while another technical player is looking for a break of 93.25 to open up a run on sub-90.00.
Meanwhile, there is speculation that another leading house is also calling for further downside. The caveat here is that everyone calls for further losses and gets caught the wrong way, particularly if risk appetite was to take another leg higher.
FX Asian summary: Dollar gains stymied by rising equities, risk appetitePosted:22/07/2009 7:52 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The USD had an inside day in Asian trading, attempting but failing to capitalise on the gains made in NY trading with rising Asian stock markets helping to underpin risk appetite which tempered USD gains.
EUR/USD opened around 1.4200 and eased to lows of 1.4174 but remained above the NY lows of 1.4163 while GBP/USD opened around 1.6450 but despite a heavy tone on reports that UK banks would need more capital, failed to break under the NY lows of 1.6385 with lows limited to 1.6391.
USD/JPY traded to session lows of 93.40 early in the session but remained above NY lows of 93.29 before bouncing back to 93.73 as the Nikkei rallied. US Treasury yields bounced with the gains in Asian stocks.
Crude futures eased slightly after the rise in API reserves but remained above $65. Another Chinese official reiterated calls for a steady USD and responsible US fiscal and monetary policy but this had little impact on the market.
FX Asian summary: Dollar, yen firm a touch on profit-takingPosted:21/07/2009 7:49 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar and JPY saw some slight gains during the Asian session though overall, the USD remains near recent lows.
Key factors behind Asian moves included profit-taking from Monday's sell-off in the USD and JPY ahead of Bernanke's appearance later today, though Bernanke himself pre-empted his own appearance with a column in the WSJ reiterating that policy will remain accommodative but offering four different exit strategy scenarios for when the time came.
Another key factor behind JPY gains against the USD and crosses were exporter flows, as Japanese exporters returned from holiday, taking advantage of JPY weakness and locking in hedges. USD/JPY retreated from Asian opening levels of 94.25 to lows of 93.76 while EUR/USD, weighed down by EUR/JPY sales, tested under 1.4200, but with lows limited to 1.4189.
Overall, recent stocks gains and positive data continue to underpin risk appetite that continues to pressure the USD. Asian stocks continued to firm, with the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index touching 10-month highs before profit-taking emerged.
Oil was steady around $64 for the August contract that matures today, with gold easing along with copper, on profit-taking. US treasury yields eased slightly on Bernanke's emphasis on accommodative policy.
FX update: Equity rally softens JPYPosted:20/07/2009 9:33 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
JPY traded on a softer footing in Asia amid the strong equity market rally. USD/JPY successfully cleared 94.75 option barriers to trade up to 94.81 highs in early European trade. News that CIT received $3 bln in rescue financing to avoid bankruptcy was a supportive factor, which fueled good interest to buy the JPY crosses.
EUR/JPY traded up to 134.35 highs and GBP/JPY traded up to 155.90, where standing 156.00 offers capped further gains. AUD/JPY was also in the ascendency and took out stops above 76.50 to extend to highs of 76.73 early on.
The crosses are likely to lead action, with USD/JPY expected to see two way flows ahead of 95.00 amid general dollar headwind and reports of option defensive selling ahead of a mooted 95.00 option barrier. Above 95.00 there are standing exporter offers, which are indicated at 95.20-30 and in to 95.50.
FX Asian summary: USD, JPY slide on mounting risk appetitePosted:20/07/2009 7:40 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The USD and JPY were under steady selling pressure in Asian trading as improved risk appetite dominated the US session in the wake of positive US data and earnings results last week.
The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index rose to the highest levels since September last year, underpinning risk appetite and commodities were broadly higher including oil, gold and copper, which was a boon for currencies such as AUD and CAD.
USD/JPY, which closed around 94.30 in NY, rose to 94.69 highs though exporter offers helped stymie gains. The absence of Japan due to the Marine Day holiday also limited JPY flows.
EUR/USD, which closed in NY at 1.4100 on a bout of late stop-loss selling by US names, rallied to highs of 1.4180 before meeting solid offers.
News that CIT obtained $3 bln in funding aided the buoyant mood with the market looking ahead to Fed Chairman Bernanke's comments on Tuesday.
FX update: Yen steady in thin tradePosted:17/07/2009 10:20 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
JPY was relatively stable in quiet trade, with USD/JPY trading in close proximity to 93.50 after offers capped ahead of 94.00 in early trade.
The pair was largely range bound as the market stuggled for directional bias in Europe and awaits today's earnings reports from the US Option maturities between the 93.00 and 94.00 level should reinforce two way action, with outstanding strikes at 93.00, 93.50, 93.75 and 94.00 today.
Elsewhere, the JPY crosses pulled back from their overnight highs, with risk aversion ticking up in to the European session as the market responded to the bombings in Jakarta.
EUR/JPY traded in to 131.80 before Japanese buying steadied price action, while GBP/JPY traded in to 152.50 amid general liquidation of GBP long positions.
JPY should maintain a supportive tone in the very short term, but more positive earnings reports should encourage a resurgence in risk in to the weekend. EUR/JPY eyes offers from 132.50 and in to the 132.75 level.
FX Asian summary: USD, JPY rise slightly on safe-haven sellingPosted:17/07/2009 7:48 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar and JPY gained some ground on Friday in Asia with a number of factors contributing to the moves, not least of which included the three bombings in Jakarta that left at least nine people dead and many injured.
Safe-haven selling of cross JPY and some buying of Treasuries resulted from the Jakarta bombings though the impact was limited. Some traders were just looking to profit-taking particularly with currencies still near the top of recent ranges, a long weekend approaching in Tokyo and with more key earnings data from Citi, BoA and GE due in NY on Friday.
USD/JPY edged down from 93.89 to 93.48 while EUR/USD retreated from late NY highs of 1.4162 to lows of 1.4094. Traders said that activity was limited overall and the market is not convinced Friday's earnings can push the currencies out of their current summer ranges.
NYMEX crude eased back under $62 on profit-taking but some attention is emerging on the sharp slide in grains and soybeans Thursday that may bode poorly for the commodity sector into the weekend.
Asian stock markets were mixed with the Nikkei gains limited. Treasury yields slipped slightly lower, with safe haven flows to bonds after the bombings, but with CIT concerns lingering.
FX update: Yen firms on risk reductionPosted:16/07/2009 10:35 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
JPY traded on a firmer footing as speculative accounts reduced risk ahead of today's earnings results from JPMorgan, Google and IBM.
There were some negative leads overnight that also influenced European trade, with news that talks for US lender CIT failed and a RealtyTrac report showed new record gains in US foreclosures.
USD/JPY turned away from the 94.00 region early on in the European session after it fell from 94.44 Asian highs and extended to 93.57 session lows. The JPY crosses also headed lower, with EUR/JPY trading in to 131.68, GBP/JPY traded in to 153.00 and AUD/JPY traded back in to 74.50. JPY has not traded back at the levels seen earlier on in the week, with better earnings reports already this week and other US data indicating that the economy has bottomed out.
Elsewhere, Japanese data overnight showed that manfacturer confidence has improved, which will also aid investor sentiment.
Option expiries may feature again in USD/JPY, with decent outstanding strikes between 93.00 and 94.40, which should result in more range bound choppy price action at current levels.
FX Asian summary: USD, JPY rise on profit-takingPosted:16/07/2009 7:51 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar and JPY regained some ground in Asia on Thursday as profit-taking set in with currencies near the top of their recent trading ranges, and as a precaution after the steep currency gains this week. Traders were also wary ahead of the earnings report form JPMorgan, Google and IBM later today.
Other factors also emerged later in the session to temper risk appetite with Fitch posting a negative outlook for NZ's rating after affirming the current AA+ rating. Also eyed are the reports that rescue talks for CIT failed which is seen leading to bankruptcy and RealtyTrac report new record gains in US foreclosures. These all served to temper the buoyant mood that emerged this week, fueling risk appetite.
China's GDP at 7.9% was above expectations but had been leaked in the Chinese press ahead of the official announcement, dampening some of the impact. Asia stocks were broadly higher but gains were capped by profit-taking.
Oil remains above $61 and US treasury yields eased after the CIT and RealtyTrac reports emerged.
FX update: JPY eases amid risk uptakePosted:15/07/2009 11:57 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
JPY maintained a softer backdrop throughout the European morning, with a rise in global risk appetite encouraging speculative selling.
After an early move lower JPY consolidated at softer levels ahead of the NY open. Intra-day accounts were reluctant to overstretch short positions ahead of today's slew of US data and more key earnings reports over the next couple of sessions.
USD/JPY traded up to 93.75 highs, but was hampered by large option expiries at 93.50 and 94.00 for today's 14:00GMT "cut". Movement is likely to remain choppy for the dollar pairing, with general dollar supply noted in the face of improved market risk.
Appetite for the JPY crosses should absorb any headwind, with EUR/JPY eyeing another attempt on 131.80 offers and GBP/JPY looking to rechallenge interest above 153.50.
Meanwhile, AUD/JPY demand has also been a feature of the European morning, with the cross rallying out of 74.20 to hit 74.84 highs, which lifted AUD/USD to an intra-day peak of 0.7993.
FX Asian summary: USD, JPY plummet as US equity futures rallyPosted:15/07/2009 7:36 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar and yen weakened sharply in late NY after US stock futures rallied in reaction to the Intel earnings result.
With topside stops cleared, the USD and JPY then consolidated through the remainder of the Asian session, with currencies still in an all-too-familiar range and the market focus already shifting to China GDP data due on Thursday and the earnings reports from Google, JP Morgan and IBM, also due on Thursday.
EUR/USD hit highs of 1.3988 , failing to even approach 1.4000, with lows limited to 1.3970.
USD/JPY consolidated in a tight range of 93.44-65 wtih no reaction to the BOJ decision to keep rates steady at 0.10%, as expected.
AUD/USD though bid was unable to break above 0.7950 while GBP/USD held a range of 1.6317-38.
Oil managed to rise above $60 as the market turned positive after the Intel news and Asian stocks pushed higher on rising tech and resource stocks. US Treasury yields also gained on the rise in stocks.
FX update: JPY eases as risk appetite increasesPosted:14/07/2009 9:59 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
JPY traded on an easier footing, with the upturn in risk appetite encouraging interest for speculative trades.
USD/JPY rallied as high as 93.34 in early Europe after reports of very good buying interest in to 92.80 in Asia after a US name in good size.
There were reports of good quasi official interest around 91.75-80 on Monday and speculation in Europe has centred on the Asian lows, with sovereign names raising their interest as USD/JPY and the cross benefited from the equity market rally.
EUR/JPY traded up to 130.67 highs, but was capped by good standing offer layered from 130.50 up to 131.00.
Option expiries could feature over the course of the session, with USD/JPY interest at 93.00 and 93.20, while EUR/JPY strikes are noted higher up at 131.50 and 132.00.
Elsewhere, TFX margin data revealed that traders had increased their net long positions in USD/JPY and cross/JPY by 9000 contracts on Friday to 212,401, which indicates that some had taken advantage of last week's firm JPY tone.
FX Asian summary: Rising equities, risk appetite boost USD, JPYPosted:14/07/2009 7:56 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar and JPY remained on the back foot in Asia as risk appetite improved in the wake of rising Asian stocks and a number of positive data releases that reflected a broad range of "green shoots" around the globe.
Key Asian stock markets including Japan, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Australia rose over 2% after the gains on Wall Street.
Aiding positive sentiment was news that Singapore GDP rose over 20% q/q rose 20.4% Q/Q while in Australia, the National Australian Bank June business confidence index rose to the first positive result since December 2007. In New Zealand, RBNZ Bollard said that New Zealand will recovery ahead of the pack.
UK surveys released during the Asian session showed RICS house price balance improved to the best level since September 2007 while the British Retail Consortium saw like-for-like sales rose +1.4% y/y in June. A survey by UK's Deloitte also shows that corporate sector confidence in the UK is at a two-year high.
Currency gains were hard-won however in Asian trading, having already made substantial progress in NY trading.
EUR/USD for instance, was capped ahead of 1.4010 in early trading retreating to 1.3960 before rising to 1.3980 ahead of the London open.
Similarly, GBP/USD was capped ahead of 1.6300, resulting in some profit taking and a pullback to 1.6229.
USD/JPY, though bid, was only above to rally above 93.20 in the afternoon, with dips in Asia limited to 92.81.
FX update: JPY supported as risk aversion returnsPosted:13/07/2009 11:35 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
JPY traded on a supportive footing, with risk taken off the table ahead of a plethora of earning reports this week.
Asian equities were lower overnight, which included the Nikkei on earnings concerns and this left USD/JPY in close proximity to the 92.00 handle, where a modest size option strikes is maturing today.
The JPY crosses were also heavy, although during the European morning there was evidence of bargain hunting on dips, with EUR/JPY trading up to 129.00 and GBP/JPY briefly trading in to 148.80 before edging back towards the 148.00 area.
The focus for JPY traders remains on USD/JPY after last week's move in to 91.80 triggered jawboning from Japanese officials. Kampo reportedly held the downside on Friday, which protected sizeable stops around the 91.40-50 area from large margin account positions. Positional traders are still looking for a move on 90.00.
FX Asian summary: USD holds firm despite reserve status speculationPosted:13/07/2009 7:27 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar maintained a firm tone in Asia and continues to hold on to most recent gains into the start of a new week.
The subject of the dollar as a reserve currency was again an issue with Japan DPJ opposition Nakagawa stating that Japan should consider diversifying reserves. Japan announced an election for August 30th today with increased chance that the DPJ comes to power.
From India, RBA Gov. Subbarao said however that the USD will continue to be the global reserve currency while Secretary Treasury Geithner said that a strong dollar remains US policy. White House economic advisor Summers warned that the worst of the economic crisis is still to come, a sentiment echoed by EBRD Mirow.
Despite the various comments and the election call, the USD still had an inside day compared to Friday's range, and much of the focus is turning to earnings data in both the US and Japan.
Fears of a weak result kept DJIA futures pressured as well as regional stock markets with some fears also that emerging stock markets are overpriced.
NYMEX crude remained pressured, holding under $60 while gold turned negative, erasing morning gains. Treasury yields remained heavy on the growth warnings and falling Asian stock markets.
EUR/USD after hitting morning highs of 1.3979 slipped to 1.3924 while sterling fell form 1.6217 to 1.6126. Initial gains on USD/JPY were capped at 92.95 before slipping back to 92.32.
FX Asian summary: USD still range-bound in AsiaPosted:10/07/2009 7:28 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The market had high hopes of a break-out in the range on the dollar that has held for the last month, but was sorely disappointed with the dollar rally rejected Wednesday and the dollar ending the week in Asia, firmly within the recent 1.3800-1.4200 range in EUR/USD and in familiar ranges against the AUD, NZD and GBP.
The USD/JPY however is still suffering from the renewed risk aversion, wtih the currency pair consolidating around 93.00 in Asia with a range of 92.77-98.18 seen during Friday's session.
EUR/USD was heavy, edging down from 1.4013 to 1.3964 but still firmly ensconced in the middle of the recent trading range.
NYMEX crude remained weak, holding near $60 and down slightly on the session with fears over global demand underpinned by reports that Japanese cargo shippers are taking large price cuts in Pan-Pacific cargo deals and with the Baltic Dry Index continuing to fall. The shipping cuts weighed on shipping stocks in Japan, limiting any rise in the Nikkei with Asian stocks mixed on the day.
Treasury yields edged marginally lower from NY levels as JGB yields for two-year bonds dropped to fresh 3 1/2 year lows.
OVERNIGHT: Yen pushes to 5mth high agianst the dollarPosted:09/07/2009 11:42 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
USD/JPY was trading up 61 pips to 93.31 after testing 93 in the Asian session.
FX Asian summary: Lack of risk appetite boosts USD, JPYPosted:09/07/2009 21:39 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar and JPY continued to post gains in Asian trading as risk aversion dominated with the Nikkei falling over 2% and other Asian stock markets broadly lower.
USD/JPY fell through stops under 94.50 to trade to 94.16 and the lowest levels since May.
The dollar gained ground against the AUD, NZD, EUR and GBP over the session, partly pressured by the cross selling though AUD, NZD and EUR still managed to hold above the base of the current trading range.
EUR/USD fell to lows of 1.3881 before bouncing back to 1.3927.
GBP/USD extended losses to 1.6063 in early trading, recovering as high as 1.6114 in the afternoon.
Commodity prices remained under pressure with oil extending losses and remaining under $63 while gold reversed Tuesday's gains on the back of the strong USD. Copper also slipped over 1% in Shanghai trading. US Treasury yields were little changed in Asia.
FX Asian summary: USD range-bound, lacking impetusPosted:10/07/2009 14:55 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar had a very subdued session in Asia, with tight consolidation ranges seen after the USD failed to break out of recent ranges against the EUR, AUD, JPY and GBP on Monday's dollar rally.
This prompted short-covering on the currencies Monday and tight consolidation ranges in Asia with no fresh impetus seen for the market this session.
EUR/USD consolidated under 1.4000 having failed in early Tokyo to rise above that level and with lows limited to 1.6949.
GBP/USD was capped ahead of 1.6300 with dips limited to 1.6140.
USD/JPY held a very tight range of 95.18-95.46 after the Tokyo open.
Asian stock markets were mixed with the Nikkei weighed down by the firm JPY and weakness in DJIA futures while Australian stocks were pressured by mining companies in the wake of the slide in commodity prices on Monday.
US Treasury yields edged up marginally ahead of the $35 bln three-year bond auction later Tuesday.
NYMEX crude remained under $65 after sharp losses on Monday. The RBA left rates unchanged at 3.00% as expected.
FX update: Yen firms on flight to safetyPosted:10/07/2009 16:10 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
JPY traded on a firmer footing, with risk appetite waning amid fresh concerns over the global growth outlook after the recent US employment numbers.
Ahead of the G8 meeting the dollar's reserve status is the subject of fresh debate, which has also encouraged a reduction in risky positions and beneficial for JPY due to a general flight to low yield currencies.
USD/JPY traded at the lower end of its recent range and challenged support ahead of 95.00, while the JPY crosses are being pressured by a general unwinding of exposure to the dollar pairings. EUR, GBP and AUD have been weighed against the dollar and the yen, with EUR/JPY hitting 132.45, GBP/JPY traded in to 153.45 and AUD/JPY traded in to 75.00.
Bond related flows is a potential JPY positives over the next week or so, with Eurozone bond redemptions of EUR 31.5 bln together with EUR 13.4 bln in coupons.
Meanwhile, another source of JPY demand is a mooted USD 4.7 bln equivalent of JPY purchases in the coming weeks following a Nikkei report, which said that three large Japanese corporates are expected to raise capital in the coming weeks from foreign investors. The week of July 20th should see the largest concentration of flows.
FX update: Yen pares gains in profit takingPosted:10/07/2009 20:11 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
JPY pulled back from its Asian session highs amid reports of bargain hunting in the crosses following reserve management interest for GBP and EUR.
USD/JPY stabilised after hitting 95.71 and is changing hands in the low 96s, although the dollar is generally a touch easier in early trade and further gains are capped.
EUR/JPY pushed back in to 134.75 versus the 133.60 area in Asia and GBP/JPY traded back in to the 157.80 area versus 156.40 lows.
There have been reports of Japanese investor demand due to more investment trust launch activity. Most of the flow has tended to favour US corporate bonds, but lower US yields has resulted in selling from those hedging structured derivative products.
The JPY crosses are likely to lead in holiday thin trade, while USD/JPY option congestion remains at 96.00-96.50.
FX Asian summary: USD consolidates yesterday's gainsPosted:09/07/2009 13:09 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar consolidated Thursday's gains in trading activity in Asia on Friday with dealings still fairly subdued with the major events of the week, the ECB and US jobs data, now out of the way and with the US holiday later today.
EUR/USD bounced from the late NY lows of 1.3928 to highs of 1.4004 while GBP/USD found solid support ahead of 1.6330 and bounced to 1.6394 with Asian reserve managers purportedly buying both currencies. USD/JPY found support around 95.70, bouncing back to 96.05 with short-covering on crosses providing support.
Notably, despite the latest price moves on the currencies, recent ranges prevail with EUR/USD still holding the 1.3800-1.4200 range and GBP/USD in a range of 1.6200-1.6600, while USD/JPY is largely contained between 95.00 to 97.00.
Asian regional stock markets were broadly lower in response to the US stock losses but also on fears that the rise in US unemployment to 26 year highs and EU unemployment to 10-year highs will cut Asian export demand.
US Treasury markets were closed for the holiday but JGBs hit three month highs as rates fell on tepid growth views.
Commodities remained heavy on expectations of weak global demand with NYMEX crude holding under $67.00.
FX Asian summary: Dollar, yen come under pressurePosted:10/07/2009 0:29 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar and yen came under pressure in Asian trading hours, with the dollar continuing to fluctuate after recent speculation over its future as the world's reserve currency.
However, the BRIC nations did not mention the issue in a closing statement to their latest summit, helping to limit the downside for the greenback.
Broadly speaking, major currencies were range-bound with little data of note and stock markets turning negative.
USD/JPY, which dropped to lows of 95.97 at the open, bounced back as high as 96.71.
EUR/JPY fell to lows of 132.55 only to surge back to highs of 134.30.
EUR/JPY's move higher helped underpin gains on EUR/USD from 1.3807 to highs of 1.3897.
Both EUR/JPY and EUR/USD were supported by talk of central bank bids.
FX update: Sliding equities buoy JPYPosted:09/07/2009 10:34 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
JPY consolidated after strong overnight gains.
Broad equity markets losses triggered a pick up in risk aversion and forced a widespread move out of the JPY crosses, which forced USD/JPY sharply lower. The dollar pairing traded as low as 96.08 and EUR/JPY hit 132.72 lows in Asia before it rebounded to 133.50 in early Europe.
A Swiss house was a large buyer at the lows and an Eastern European presence was noted in EUR/USD following comments from a Kremlin aide on a global reserve currency.
The Japanese market saw little impetus from the BoJ, which left its key rate unchanged at 0.10% and raised its assessment on the economy, which was widely expected. The global economic recovery story will remain the leading influence.
It looks as if yesterday's US numbers and some negative press surrounding Europe has taken the edge of the reflation trade and the market will remain sensitive to today's releases, with German ZEW due and a slew of US economic releases to digest.
USD/JPY should remain capped towards 96.70-80 and over 97.00, while downside support is tipped at 96.00-10, which are protecting stops below.
FX Asian summary: USD pushes higher, equities slidePosted:10/07/2009 8:29 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar extended Monday's gains into Asia Tuesday trading session, with heavy and aggressive JPY cross selling weighing on AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and NZD/JPY and resulting in further losses for AUD/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/USD and NZD/USD in opening Asian trading.
The cross sales also forced USD/JPY to break the base of the recent range around 97.20/30 and fall to lows of 96.53, weighed down as well by the slide of over 2% in the Nikkei.
In fact, all Asian stocks markets (except Taiwan which fell 4% yesterday) were broadly lower after the DJIA losses on Monday. EUR/USD, which opened around 1.3800, dropped to lows of 1.3748 before bouncing as high as 1.3821 on short-covering.
Oil remained heavy, losing further ground and edging toward $70, though gold managed to gain back some minor ground, rising $6.00. Treasury bonds gained ground on the back of Asian regional stock weakness, sending yields lower.
FX Asian summary: Dollar firm on Kudrin commentsPosted:13/07/2009 14:10 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar held firm in Asia after comments from Russian finance minister Alexei Kudrin that there is currently no alternative to the US dollar in terms of a reserve currency.
There was little to no market reaction to the G8 meeting, where finance ministers noted stabilization in world economies but emphasized that the situation remains uncertain.
Asian stock markets were broadly lower with Taiwan falling over 4% amid fears of a broader correction in stocks.
Bond yields eased marginally on the back of weaker equities, lower commodity prices and Kudrin's comments.
Oil, gold and copper were all lower on the back of the firm dollar.
FX Asian summary: USD sentiment remains weakPosted:13/07/2009 14:10 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar mostly consolidated the latest losses that were seen on Thursday with EUR/USD consolidating around 1.4100 in a range of 1.4069-1.4128 while Cable traded initially around 1.6600, retreating as low as 1.6520 before bouncing.
AUD/USD was notably weak with selling reported from Asian central banks and selling against the EUR and NZD as well, dropping from 0.8200 to lows of 0.8124. But, in the wake of the week's volatility that often defied fundamentals, and ahead of the G-8, traders were happy to stay sidelined.
USD/JPY traded a range of 97.51-94 and well within the band of 97.30-98.50 that has contained recent dealings.
Of note were warnings from the chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, asking whether positive signs in the economy for real, noting that the incongruity between the Chinese stock market gains while corporate profits are falling. Japan's Fin Yosano gave verbal support for USD assets stating stating that Japan's trust in "US Treasuries is absolutely unshakable."
Asian stocks were mixed with the Nikkei trading above 10,000.
Oil remained above $72 though pared some of its recent gains. US Treasury yields edged slightly lower after the decline in NY on Thursday.
FX Asian summary: USD weak in AsiaPosted:13/07/2009 14:10 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar remained weak in Asia though consolidated Tuesday's losses against the EUR and GBP while losing further ground against AUD and NZD.
The Nikkei ignored weak Japanese machinery orders and soared to eight-month highs on higher commodity prices. Asian stock markets were broadly higher fostering risk appetite and broad-based JPY cross buying from Asian and Middle East accounts.
USD/JPY extended losses in early Asian trading, dropping to 97.09 and triggering stops, USD/JPY bounced on broad JPY cross buying, rising to 97.69.
EUR/USD held a range between 1.4050-1.4100 most of the session until a late rally to 1.4102, while GBP/USD consolidated around 1.6295-43.
US treasury yields were little changed from NY levels as the market waits on the results from the US ten-year auction later Wednesday.
NYMEX crude remained above $70 after the rise in the EIA forecast and on reports of Nigerian militant attacks.
Gold was underpinned by dollar weakness.
FX Asian update: Dollar climbs in AsiaPosted:12/07/2009 19:25 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
Despite the retreat in the dollar on Monday in NY, the dollar again re-asserted itself in Asian trading on Tuesday.
The rise was prompted by fresh EUR losses in a delayed reaction to comments Monday from the IMF, that the eurozone recovery is uncertain, that the ECB should ease further and that Europe should launch a clean up of its banking system.
News that Obama administration was going to call for tougher European bank stress tests, also added to the pressure on the EUR.
EUR/USD fell from morning highs of 1.3936 to lows of 1.3854. The subsequent pressure on EUR/JPY, which fell from 137.32 to 135.70, also weighed on USD/JPY which finally broke out of the 50 point range around 98.50 to trade to lows of 97.88.
AUD, NZD, CAD and GBP all weakened in line with the EUR.
NYMEX crude was stable above $68 and gold bounced slightly but Asian stocks came under selling pressure with Taiwan falling over 3% and trading to a one-month low.
Treasury yields retreated slightly from the fresh highs made on Monday as the market squared up slightly ahead of the US $65 bln auction this week.
FX Asian summary: Dollar steady, market cautious ahead of key dataPosted:09/07/2009 20:14 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar retreated marginally in Asian hours, keeping hold of most of its gains from Wednesday with traders wary of taking large positions ahead of the impending ECB, BOE and BOC decisions as well as the key US non-farm payrolls figures on Friday.
USD/JPY held within its broad trading range, mostly around 94-97, with price action contained by option maturities.
EUR/USD held a range of 1.4143-1.4192.
AUD gains were capped by the disappointing trade data that showed the first deficit since July 2008 with rallies capped at 0.8047.
Asian stocks were broadly lower in line with the fall in US equities on Wednesday.
Asian fx comments 'concerted verbal intervention' to prop up dollar -- Monument SecuritiesPosted:11/07/2009 18:39 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
Comments out of Asia that its richest countries see no alternative to the dollar as a main reserve currency are 'concerted verbal intervention' to support the US currency, said Marc Ostwald of Monument Securities.
"The dollar selloff was threatening to turn into a rout and the realization hit that it's in no one's interest to have this instability now," Ostwald told NTKN.
FX Asian summary: Dollar weakness continues, C.Banks intervenePosted:11/07/2009 15:15 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The USD remained under pressure in Asian hours, prompting intervention from the Taiwan central bank and talk that other authorities could step in to halt the rise in their currencies against the greenback.
Chief gainers against the dollar included AUD, which struck a fresh eight-month high at 0.8263 after firm GDP data, and GBP, which hit 1.6656, a seven-month peak, after buoyant confidence figures.
EUR/USD, though catching a bid from the AUD and GBP performance, stalled near its NY-session highs at 1.4330, although dips were shallow.
Meanwhile, actual and speculated intervention by central banks in Asia was seen to be prompting demand for US treasuries, with bond yields edging marginally lower during Asian trading.
FX update: JPY soft; GBP/JPY at 6mth highPosted:11/07/2009 7:40 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
JPY traded on a softer footing during the Asian afternoon after it responded to a series of weak Japanese releases, although there was one positive after industrial output posted its biggest monthly rise in April in 56 years, of 5.2%.
USD/JPY remained on the backfoot in the Asian morning amid general dollar weakness, but weak Japanese data and persistent speculative activity via the JPY crosses saw it make a gradual recovery to 96.75-80, where it last traded.
EUR/JPY held firm, trading close to 135.50 and topping at 135.80 -- an eight-week high -- with European equity markets looking to push higher and the USD legs underpinned amid dollar selling interest.
GBP/JPY extended its recent gains to peak at 155.90, its highest since November, with global recovery hopes encouraging pesistent interest for GBP on dips.
Overnight: S.Korea pension fund to diversify away from US bondsPosted:10/07/2009 21:55 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The South Korea National Pension Service said it will diversify some of its holdings away from US government bonds, although it did not say by how much.
FX Asian summary: Dollar pressured by diversification talkPosted:10/07/2009 12:06 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar remained under pressure moving into the weekend, with both AUD and NZD extending trend highs at 0.7917 and 0.6288 respectively, and with USD/CAD revisiting the recent trend lows just under 1.1100.
The USD's bearish tone was partly a result of headlines that the South Korean Pension Fund was looking to diversify out of the dollar.
This followed a number of comments Thursday about the dollar, that BRIC nations would discuss the dollar dominance, and more warnings from PIMCO on the dollar as a reserve currency, that kept the buck under pressure.
However, sterling had only an inside day within Thursday's ranges and EUR once again failed to secure gains above 1.4000.
USD/JPY fell from 96.80 to 96.25 on exporter sales and the surprise 5.2% rise in industrial output.
Ahead of the weekend and month end however, trading was choppy.
Asian stocks were mostly higher except Seoul with lingering N. Korean fears weighing on the market.
Oil eased slightly under $65.00 after closing at the year's high on Thursday.
Treasury yields retreated slightly in Asia after soothing words from the Fed's Richard Fisher who noted central banks still showed demand for treasuries; comments which were b backed up by Fed custody holdings data which hit another record high.
FX Asian summary: Dollar ekes out gainsPosted:10/07/2009 8:20 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The USD was broadly higher in Asian hours, led by JPY weakness with a wide range of buyers behind the USD/JPY surge including Japanese security houses, macro and model funds, spec names and stops, helping to push USD/JPY above 96.00 to 96.58.
The JPY weakness helped push EUR/USD to the lowest levels in a week of 1.3793 with Cable triggering stops under 1.5950 to trade to lows of 1.5900.
There was no strong catalyst for the move though the rise in US yields to six month highs was seen as USD supportive (although on other occasions it has been a reflection of a sell-off in USD assets).
The inability of EUR/USD to find a foothold above 1.40 the last two sessions has also squeezed out USD shorts.
GBP/JPY traded to the highest since November with Japanese FX margin accounts caught short on this cross.
Asian stock markets were mixed with the Nikkei erasing early losses to rally as JPY weakened. Shanghai, HK and Taiwan were closed. Gold slumped almost $7 on the stronger USD with crude futures holding just under $63.
Treasury yields held near six month highs, taking the 10-yr benchmark JGB yield to six-month highs around 1.50%.
FX Asian summaryPosted:14/07/2009 1:22 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar remained under pressure in early Asia with GBP, AUD, NZD and CAD extending trend highs and reaching their highest levels since the autumn of 2008.
However, there were some signs of dollar resilience. Along with EUR/USD's recent inability to break above 1.40, USD was well bid against JPY during the session, holding above the 95.00 threshold.
Asian stock markets were broadly higher, many hitting multi-month highs after the US stock gains and strong US confidence data.
The market continues to eye the performance of US bond auctions to see whether foreign demand remains strong on the back of current USD weakness and higher bond yields.
FX summary: AsiaPosted:12/07/2009 13:10 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar index fell to a fresh five-month low in Asian trading, but not on the back of the EUR/USD which consolidated recent gains around 1.3800, failing to revisit the late NY highs of 1.3830.
Cable led the fresh pressure on the USD, rising above 1.5800 to trigger stops and trade to highs of 1.5818. The sterling move boosted other Commonwealth currencies with CAD, AUD and NZD rising but unable to push through Wednesday's highs.
USD/JPY was pressured by yet another round of JPY cross sales from Japanese life companies and from model funds, with the fall in the Nikkei over 1% helping to weigh on the currency.
Asian stock markets were broadly lower with the Nikkei pressured by exporter weakness due to JPY strength while growing doubts over China's recovery weighed on Shanghai.
US Treasury yields opened lower, after losses in NY on the FOMC minutes showing Fed interest to buy more treasuries. Oil eased below $62 after reaching a six-month high Wednesday but gold continued to rally on the dollar weakness.
FX summary: AsiaPosted:10/07/2009 6:32 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The JPY gained ground during the Asian session, partly aided by the GDP number which though poor at -4% for Q1, was better than expectations of -4.2%.
JPY gains on the back of the data, and further EUR/JPY selling from Japanese life companies and model funds helped the push USD/JPY lower to 95.50 from opening levels around 96.22.
The USD also managed to gain slight ground in Asia due to the JPY cross selling that emerged on JPY strength with AUD, NZD and EUR all coming under pressure.
EUR/USD eased from Tokyo opening levels of 1.3650 to fall to 1.3584 both on the back of EUR/JPY sales but also some pressure on EUR/GBP as well.
Asian stock markets were mixed with the Nikkei up slightly on the GDP result but China pressured after the World Bank warned that China recovery hopes were premature.
July NYMEX crude futures remained over $60 despite increased warnings about rising oil supplies and inventory. Treasury yields were little changed from late NY levels.
FX update: JPY easesPosted:11/07/2009 17:02 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
JPY traded on an easier footing, with the broad rise in risk appetite fueling leverage account activity and carry trade demand.
USD/JPY traded up to early European highs of 96.69 and maintained a supportive tone throughout amid persistent Japanese bid interest. Offers have been noted from exporter names and lifers from 96.70 and more are noted across the 97.00 handle.
The JPY crosses are also buoyant on general interest from retail investors and speculative names jumping on the buying spree across European and commodity bloc currencies.
EUR/JPY traded up to 131.80 highs and remains bid after the German ZEW beat expectations and GBP/JPY is sharply higher after rallying out of 148.00 in early Europe to hit 149.62 highs.
AUD/JPY has extended its early gains and traded up to 74.84 highs after triggering stops above 74.30 early on.
FX summary: AsiaPosted:12/07/2009 10:46 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
Renewed risk appetite kept pressure on the USD in Asian trading with Asian stock markets taking the lead from US equity gains, and trading to multi-month highs. This saw EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and GBP extend the gains these currencies made on Monday. EUR/USD rallied to highs of 1.3579, from morning lows of 1.3530 with Cable rising to 1.5355. USD/JPY consolidated however, trading a range of 96.13-96.62 with the move to session highs aimed at triggering stops above 96.50. US Treasury yields edged higher in response to the regional stock market gains. NYMEX crude remained near $59 while gold edged marginally lower. In Europe, the focus is on Germany's ZEW while the US calendar remains light, with just April housing starts on tap.
Japan Dep FinMin says monitoring FX market moves - reportPosted:11/07/2009 11:05 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
Reuters reports Japan's deputy finance minister Sugimoto as saying the government wants to avoid movements on foreign exchange markets from impacting on economic growth.
FX update: JPY supported by safe haven seekersPosted:11/07/2009 11:45 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The JPY found brief support on the Moody's JGB ratings announcement, which unexpectedly upgraded its domestic currency bond rating from Aa3. However, the agency still lowered its rating for Japan's foreign currency bonds, which unifies the local and foreign JGBs at Aa2, and there has been limited market impact. Moody's also affirmed that Japanese bank ratings will not be affected. A Nikkei newspaper report had earlier caused speculation of a sovereign downgrade, which had supported USD/JPY earlier in the Tokyo session, though the speculation proved to be unfounded. USD/JPY has now settled around the 95.00 level after earlier making a near two-month low at 94.52 (before the rumours about Moody's started). The backdrop of rekindled risk caution has been supporting the JPY, while the rebound in Japanese consumer confidence, reported earlier, may have also helped the currency. In USD/JPY, a mix of sellers and stops in the 95.50-96.00 area, with buying interest noted from 94.50, with stops below. Ahead this week, Japan's Q1 GDP data on Wednesday is expected to reveal another sharp contraction.
FX summary: AsiaPosted:11/07/2009 7:05 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The JPY and dollar maintained its firm tone through much of early Asian trading, capitalizing on the stronger USD trend that emerged Friday in NY on the back of weak European data and the sell-off in CHF. AUD, NZD, CAD, EUR and GBP all marginally extended losses, but there was little follow-through, with price action consolidating the remainder of the session. EUR/USD fell from morning highs of 1.3486 to lows of 1.3424. USD/JPY dropped to lows of 94.55 weighed down by JPY cross sales from hedge funds and Japanese lifers, remaining under morning highs of 95.16 in the afternoon. US treasury yields edged lower as Asian stocks fell and the FT reported that smaller US banks still need an additional $24 bln in capital. Asian stocks were broadly lower, though India benefited from the election results. NYMEX crude remained under $57 after the sell-off on Friday with copper heavy as well.
FX update: Yen firmsPosted:09/07/2009 13:07 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
JPY traded on a supportive footing, with the fallout in the euro and sterling fueling good long liquidation in the JPY crosses. EUR/JPY hit lows of 128.18 in Asia, although bargain hunting was noted on dips, which saw a period of gains in to the 128.80 area, but the overall tone was heavy after it traded from a 129.53 intra-day peak. GBP/JPY traded in to 145.50 and AUD/JPY moved in to the 70.50 area. The speculative market is showing concern over bank stress tests, with some negative press on the weekend. Apparently, the US Treasury and the financial regulators are clashing over how to disclose the results and how far the tests will go to test bank strength, which could be indicative of more defensive to come in FX. The market is not as jittery as it once was though and this was indicated by the fall in USD/JPY implied volatility, with one month contracts down to 14.90% in Asia, which was the lowest since September 12 2008. Elsewhere, option maturities continue to hamper USD/JPY, with strikes noted at 99.50 and 100.00, although the large interest at 101.45 today is too far away too cause problems. Technically, USD/JPY once again failed to sustain a move below the 200-day moving average at 98.78 today.
FX summary: AsiaPosted:10/07/2009 12:28 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The EUR/USD moves dictated the trading action in Asia today with the EUR/USD plunging through stops at 1.3000 and 1.2970, and dragging AUD, NZD, GBP and CAD all lower in the process. The catalyst could easily have been just to target the stops, but comments from ECB's Trichet over the weekend, suggesting the possibility of a May 25 bp ECB rate cut and other easing measures also helped to fuel the selling. EUR/USD dropped from highs of 1.3049 to lows of 1.2966. The large slide in EUR/JPY on the back of the EUR weakness, also helped weigh on USD/JPY and JPY crosses with USD/JPY falling from 99.41 to lows of 98.63. Asian stocks were mixed today. US treasury yields retreated after strong gains on Friday in NY.
FX summary: AsiaPosted:11/07/2009 4:21 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar was under pressure in early Asian trading, weighed down by gains in the EUR, GBP and AUD as risk appetite improved in the wake of the Fed Beige Book and the strong triple digit gains on the DJIA. However, the currencies suffered a set-back with selling on JPY crosses emerging to weigh on USD/JPY after China's GDP at 6.1% fell short of expectations, reflecting the slowest growth in ten-years. AUD/USD, which had fallen just short of re-testing recent highs at 0.7316, dropped back to 0.7248. EUR/USD pulled back from 1.3269 to 1.3192 while Cable, which traded to 1.5070, descended to 1.4973. USD/JPY, which was capped at 99.52, dropped back to 98.97. Asian stocks which rallied strongly at the open, with the Nikkei up almost 3%, pared gains after the China GDP data with the Nikkei only holding on to gains of 0.50% in the afternoon, though Asian stocks remain positive overall. NYMEX crude rose but remained under $50 after the rise in inventories reported Wednesday in NY dealings. US Treasury yields were little changed. Of note was China's statement citing the recent moderation in reserve accumulation as a factor of EUR depreciation earlier this year, apparently attempting to assuage some press speculation that China was purchasing less forex reserves.
FX update: JPY firmsPosted:12/07/2009 0:35 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
JPY traded on a firmer footing as fund names and speculative accounts responded to broad equity market weakness. Europe has followed the Asian market lower, but so far moves via USD/JPY and the crosses have been muted. EUR/JPY steadied after it recorded 129.95 lows and USD/JPY recovered from 98.15 lows to trade back in to 98.50. There are the usual reports of bargain hunting from Japanese retail accounts and profit taking from short term technical players, however, the JPY crosses are expected to remain on the defensive. AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and EUR/JPY experienced weak closes yesterday on the daily chart, while there is the added influence of eurozone bond redemptions this week, which will contribute to further EUR/JPY supply. Redemptions total EUR 45 bln and should result in offers towards 131.00 and 131.50, while more standing offers are said to lie across 132.00. Meanwhile, USD/JPY closed on and opened below the 200-day moving average at 98.91. The last time this happened was on Sept 15 2008 and USD/JPY fell two big figures on that occasion, which will add to Japanese views of a much softer USD/JPY.
FX summary: AsiaPosted:12/07/2009 0:27 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
Unwinding of carry trades in response to renewed risk aversion was the dominant theme of the Asian session with reports of hedge funds being stopped out of recent JPY cross purchases, and with Japanese investor sales of EUR/JPY due to upcoming EUR bond redemptions adding to the JPY cross selling pressure. EUR/JPY fell from Asian highs of 131.50 to 130.33, and is well down from yesterday's Asian highs of 134.33. USD/JPY declined from morning highs of 99.14 to lows of 98.15. EUR/USD dropped from Asian opening levels around 1.3270 to lows of 1.3220. Asian stocks were broadly lower after the DJIA fall with the Nikkei also pressured by exporter losses in response to the stronger JPY. NYMEX crude remained under $50 and edged slightly lower on global demand concerns. Treasury yields remained low as well in the wake of the slide in US retail sales. As an aside to the session, Fiji devalued their currency by 20% amidst political turmoil.
FX update: Yen firmPosted:10/07/2009 12:04 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
JPY traded on a firmer footing in to European trade. USD/JPY traded in to 99.50 after a pull back in the JPY crosses. EUR/JPY hit 132.10 lows in early Europe and GBP/JPY traded in to 147.40 as risky positions were pared back amid a weak opening for European stocks. The focus for European traders reverted to bank stress tests following the Easter break. The big-picture story of late has been one of improving risk appetite, with financial stocks in focus amid better than expected earnings from Wells Fargo last week and Goldman Sachs on Monday. Results from Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and General Electric are due, which will mean a benchmark week for risk ahead, although bank stress test results at the end of the month is likely to temper heavier speculative positioning. Intra-day, should result in more range trading in USD/JPY, with option congestion still noted between 99.50 and 100.50. Buy orders are noted at 99.30-40 and just ahead of 99.00, which is just below technical support at 99.15. Offers are tipped at 99.70 and in to 99.90.
FX summary: AsiaPosted:11/07/2009 13:51 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The dollar generally remained under pressure in Asian trading despite some profit-taking in AUD and EUR that offered a slight reprieve to the USD weakness that emerged in NY on Monday. EUR/JPY sales by Japanese investors saw EUR/USD slip from morning highs of 1.3381 to 1.3306 before a bounce back to 1.3350 in the afternoon. Macro funds helped cap AUD at 0.7322 for a slide to 0.7271 before a bounce back to 0.7291. USD/JPY was weighed down by the EUR/JPY sales and a weak Nikkei, dropping from highs of 100.43 to 99.62. However, CAD rallied with USD/CAD falling form 1.2241 to 1.2183 while Cable extended gains ahead of the London open, rising to 1.4912 in response to a fresh slide in EUR/GBP to 0.8957 and recent lows. Flows rather than fundamentals were seen behind the currency moves. In regional developments, the MAS "re-centered" the SGD effectively allowing a 1.7% devaluation following forecasts that the Singapore economy could drop as much as 9% this year. North Korea abandoned nuclear talks and threatened to re-start its program but with little impact on the market. Asian stocks were mixed with the Nikkei dragged down by weak auto shares. NYMEX crude dropped under $50 in further reaction to the IEA forecasts of falling global demand.
Fitch Downgrades Japan's 3 major banks --NIKKEI NewsPosted:09/07/2009 17:32 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
Fitch has placed Japan's three major banks (Bank of Tokyo, Mitsubishi UFJ, and Mizuho Fin'l) on negative watch according to Nikkei News. It says that asset quality and profitability may be impaired by macroeconomic positions in Japan. Likewise, a Goldman analyst stated last night that Mizuho's earnings will likely see losses of JPY 86bln - rather than the JPY 150bln profit guidance. This follows Goldman Sachs analyst pronouncement last night that Mizuho's earnings will likely be negative JPY86bln rather than the JPY150bln profit guidance. USD/JPY is holding in the mid-100s following this announcement.
FX update: JPY easesPosted:11/07/2009 17:59 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
JPY traded on an easier footing in early European trade as speculative names and short term funds were buyers of the JPY crosses. EUR/JPY traded out of the 132.50 area to hit 133.54 highs, which helped to lift USD/JPY to highs of 100.23. GBP/JPY also pushed higher and tested offers around the 148.00 level and AUD/JPY traded up to 71.60. Further JPY selling may be tempered by the Easter holidays and momentum is already lacking after the initial rise in liquidity over the European open. For the most part, larger funds and real money-backed accounts are sitting on the sidelines until normal trading resumes next week. The news over US bank stress tests was positive, but the Fed offered a very downbeat assessment of the economy in its "minutes", which still casts doubt over the longevity of the recent improvement in market sentiment. As we approach the weekend option expiries may draw an influence, with USD/JPY strikes still heavily congested around the 100.00 level, along with outstanding maturities at 99.50 and 100.50.
FX summary: AsiaPosted:12/07/2009 10:00 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
Price action on the USD and currencies was range-bound for most of the Asian session, though a slight lift to JPY crosses and currencies emerged late in the session in response to a surge in Asian stock markets with shares in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea rallying 3-4%. DJIA futures were up 82 pts. Seen fostering a slight positive boost for the market as well was the NY Times report that all US banks are set to pass their stress tests and are surprisingly healthy though some will need more funds. USD/JPY, which opened around 99.75, rallied briefly to 100.00 on fixing demand rumors with the actual flows failing to materialize, but made another push above 100.00 on the strong gains in stocks in the afternoon. EUR/USD opened in Tokyo around 1.3250 and pivoted closely 1.3250 much of the session before making slight gains to 1.3275 on the stock performance. AUD/USD which slumped after the worse-than-expected jobs data, bounced back too 0.7100 due to a large number of upcoming option expiries but allied to 0.7116 as the stock performance. Oil also gained a $1, rising over $50.00 on the equity market performance. However, currency prices remain within recent ranges with activity expected to be subdued due to the coming holidays.
FX summary: AsiaPosted:12/07/2009 12:45 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
The USD and JPY buying trend continued as the renewed risk averse mood gained momentum. The fall in US stocks on Tuesday helped underpin the risk aversion, but was aided by the disappointing Alcoa results, with the EUR under particular selling pressure after the dire Irish budget and forecasts for Ireland growth to decline by over 7% this year. Asian stock markets declined 2-3% today, helping fuel the JPY cross sales and boosting the USD. Late afternoon comments from Fed's Fisher asserting that the EUR faces more problems than the USD sent the EUR to fresh session lows of 1.3166, after the EUR opened around 1.3275. USD/JPY fell from a spike high of 100.87, achieved during the Tokyo fix, to lows of 99.89 on the back of the cross sales. US Treasury yields edged lower on weaker stocks. Oil prices declined as well on the API data from Tuesday and demand concerns.
FX update: Yen firmsPosted:09/07/2009 9:58 GMT by NeedToKnowNews
JPY traded on a firmer footing, with a broad uptick in risk aversion boosting demand. During the European morning price action was influenced by euro and sterling flows. After making an early run higher both currencies turned course, with sterling getting caught long and the euro suffering under equity market weakness and a downward revision in eurozone Q4 GDP. EUR/JPY traded in to the 133.00 area and GBP/JPY traded in to 146.65, which dragged AUD/JPY back towards its Asian session lows of 70.76. USD/JPY chopped around early on as a broad dollar bid absorbed some of the cross-related interest, but the pair eventually succumbed to decent speculative activity and hit 100.15 lows. Option maturities at 100.00 and 100.50 are expected to result in further price chop within the familiar 100.00 and 101.00 corridor, with the crosses likely to see the bigger price swings. We look for limited risk appetite as market participants keep bets to the minimum in a holiday shortened week.