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Crude Update

After holding support at the 40 handle at the start of the trading day, Crude plunged through support at level. It has since bounced off that 40 handle (now resistance) twice and is trading just off lows. Currently, Crude is down 5.3% to 39.50.

FX Midday: Europe

The FX majors maintained their recent trading ranges ahead of the US NFP data, although the market continued to experience good price swings as one off order flows and economic data dominated price action. Cable fell sharply to hit 1.5118 lows, but subsequently rebounded after good Swiss selling via EUR/GBP from 0.9040-50 down to 0.8955. Meanwhile, EUR/USD traded on supportive footing around 1.3700 after better than expected Eurozone retail sales, although German November production continued to highlight dire economic conditions and fell 3.1% m/m. JPY traded on a supportive footing, with European equity markets maintaining a heavy tone ahead of the US NFP data. There were reports of Japanese interest to repatriate JPY, which added weight on the JPY crosses and left USD/JPY under 91.00.

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FX Update: Sterling Extends Losses Post Data

GBP extended losses after weak data, with UK November manufacturing output falling 2.9% m/m and industrial output down 2.3% m/m. Cable hit 1.5118 lows and EUR/GBP extended its recovery to trading up to 0.9047 highs. Trading is reportedly on the thin side and this exacerbated some of the moves seen in to and over the data release. Cable was weighed on earlier amid talk of a Swiss name sell order, while one European house was reportedly turning a short EUR/GBP position after actively selling during the last few trading sessions. Overall, recent ranges remain intact, but good order flows continue to contribute to the wild directionless price swings.

European Markets Outlook

US shares were mostly higher on hopes congress may pass legislation to stop the foreclosure of mortgages now that Citi supports the plan. The Dow was off 0.3% partly due to a 7.5% decline in Wal-Mart following weak December sales. The S&P was up 0.3%. The Nasdaq rose 1.1% Asian equities were mixed in cautious trading ahead of today's release of US non-farm payroll data in the US, which is expected to underline the weakness in the world's largest economy. The Nikkei fell 0.5%. The ASX was up 1%. The Hang Seng added 0.3%. European stocks were called flat as investors will likely sit on their hands until the US jobs data hits the markets at 1330 GMT. The FTSE was seen unchanged, the DAX up 18 points, the CAC 11 higher. The DAX future rose 0.2%. The CAC added 0.3%. German retail sales climbed 0.7% m/m in November to beat estimates, but the German government said store turnover in 2008 was -0.5% to flat compared to last year. French trade data and industrial production are due in the first half of the session, as are EZ retail sales. German November industrial production will be announced at 1100 GMT and broadcast live on Need to Know News' Scream Audio. The euro pared losses against the greenback following German retail sales and the hope December was a good month, too. EUR/USD as down 0.1%. The sales data failed to stop the currency's fall against Sterling: EUR/GBP fell 0.4%. EUR/JPY was off 0.1%. GBP/JPY gained 0.3%. Cable was up 0.3%. Bonds moved higher in early trade. The 10yr Bund future was up 10 ticks to 123.67. The 10yr Bund yield fell 1bp to 3.13%. The 2yr Schatz was off 5bps to 1.6%. The 10yr Gilt shed 4bps to 3.18%, and the 2yr was flat at 1.68%. The 10yr JGB slipped 1bp to 1.29%. The 10yr T-note was down 2bps to 2.42%. Oil took a bid on reports the Saudis could cut crude output. WTI gained 1.5% to $42.33. Bren added 1.4% to $48.21.

FX Summary: Asia

The dollar gained some ground back in the Asian trading session, after the sell-off NY but the move was seen as position-adjustment ahead of the all-important US non-farm payroll data. Fundamentals still have to be eyed as a factor that helped weigh on GBP, AUD and EUR however, with more job cuts announced in the UK, weaker commodity prices weighing on AUD, and the latest round of European data seen highly negative for the EUR. EUR/USD has already slipped off NY highs near 1.3800 to open in Asia at 1.3700, taking out stops under 1.3650 on the fall to 1.3633. GBP/USD held under 1.5200 much of the session after dropping below that level in early dealings. AUD/USD fell from early Tokyo levels of 0.7122 down to lows of 0.7056 before bouncing. Asia stocks were mixed with S. Korea and Tokyo stocks falling but Australian stocks higher. US treasury yields were little changed ahead of the jobs data. Oil and gold were higher during Asian trading with oil correcting higher after three days of losses. Median expectations for the jobs data are now for a -550K fall, widening from -500K earlier in the week on the ADP data with forecasts as deep as a -700K decline. NY traders say that they are hearing expectations by traders of -580K to -590K.

Natural Gas Update

Natural Gas was already trading at lows, and plummeted 20 cents to 5.57 after storage showed a smaller drop than expected. Natural Gas has recovered somewhat but is still down 2.8% at 5.719.

European Midday Report

The main focus in morning trading is the forthcoming announcement from the Bank of England (1200GMT) on an expected bank rate cut. Opinion is divided three ways between 50bps, 75 and 100bps on the Bank's likely course of action, with a majority favouring the first of those options. Sterling came under some pressure earlier but held relatively steady later in the morning at around $1.5052 and 0.9003 vs. the Euro.Â The Euro was also little moved against the dollar 1.3572 after figures from the German EconomicsÂ ministry showing a near-collapse in industrial orders, down six per cent in November month on month and a whopping 27.2 per cent year on year. Elsewhere, Dollar/JPY 91.60. European equity markets held barely steady in generally quiet conditions with the Footsie 0.99% lower and the DAX yielding 1.2%. Â Forecasts are for the Dow Jones Industrials to slip at the opening, possibly by around 30 points to 8739Â with the SP 500 off 3 to 903. European debt futures are moving up with gilts outperforming ahead of that Bank rate announcement. Bunds wiped out earlier losses on the back of those industrial orders numbers. The March 10 year Bund future is up 23 ticks on the day at 123.09 while the corresponding gilts future is up 46 ticks at 121.40. In the cash market the 10 year Bund yield is off 3 bp at 3.15% and the gilt yield is down 3 bp at 3.24% Oil prices rose in the face on Middle East fighting. The February Nymex rose 39 cents a barrel at $43.03. Gold traded with an offered bias, sliding to $834.50 inÂ Asia before recoveringÂ to around $850 in morning European dealings. Â Â Â Â Â Â

FX Midday: Europe

The European morning was influenced by risk reduction after equity markets continued to trade at softer levels. JPY and CHF traded on a firmer footing versus the dollar, which added weight on the crosses. EUR/CHF traded below 1.4950 and EUR/JPY moved towards 124.00 amid good Japanese lifer selling reportedly linked to eurozone bond redemptions. Elsewhere, EUR/USD was weighed on amid good cross flows and softer Eurozone data, but managed to find a base after recording early lows of 1.3536. Yesterday weak US ADP employment continued to highlight the difficult US economic conditions, which hampered dollar buying momentum. The heaviness in the euro crosses led to more Cable volatility, with EUR/GBP trading underneath 0.9000, which kept Cable above 1.5000 despite an early test lower. The market will towards the BOE rate decision, where a cut of at least 50 bp is expected, but uncertainty remains high.