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In the Markets

* Eurozone Nov retail sales seen down 0.1% m/m (median unchanged) after -0.8% in Oct * German Nov IP expected down 3.5% m/m (median -1.9%) after y-day's sharp orders fall * European calendar also has U.K. Dec PPI and Nov industrial production * U.S. payrolls highlights calendar; 480k decline expected, but many see risk for -600k * Canadian employment seen down 50k; calendar also has housing starts, permits * Fed's Hoenig: Fed needs plan to withdraw liquidity during recovery or risk inflation * Fed's Rosengren: U.S. recession more severe than originally thought * AUD, EUR and GBP pare gains ahead of nonfarm payrolls; USD-JPY heavy * U.S. Treasury yields steady ahead of U.S. jobs data; Muni bond probe eyed * Asian stock markets mixed; Nikkei hampered by exporters, Australia up on BHP * NYMEX crude futures bounced above $42 in Asia, gold prices easier * Bank of Korea cut repo rate by 50 bps to 2.50%, as expected; fifth cut since October * Japan Nov leading index -3.7 m/m and coincident index -2.8, extending sharp fall-off * Japan Dec 20-day trade deficit -581 bln JPY; exports continued plunge to -29.6% y/y * PIMCO's Gross warned of bond vigilante revival in Jan Investment Outlook

In the Markets

* FOMC slashed funds target to 0.25-0%, in line with effective rate * Fed signaled likely to "warrant exceptionally low Fed funds rate for some time" * Fed will buy "large quantities of agencies, MBS as warranted," could buy Treasuries * USD index tanked 2.3% to 80.0 on Fed moves; EUR-USD jumped to two-month high * USD fall extended, led by JPY as stocks fall; Nakagawa downplayed intervention * U.S. Treasury yields hold near record lows in Asia after historic Fed move * BoE Dec minutes expected to reveal unanimous vote in favour of 100 bp rate cut * Norges Bank expected to cut policy rate by at least 100 bp (median same) to 3.75% * Eurozone HICP seen confirmed at 2.1% * European calendar also has U.K. claimant and pay growth data, and CBI retail survey * U.S. calendar Wed features weekly mortgage index and Q3 current account data * Canadian calendar has BoC-speak and Oct wholesale trade data (expected at -0.5%) * Japan MoF Shinohara: FX markets are being watched carefully * Japan Oct leading indicators revised to -4.5% m/m from -4.2%, steepest back to 1980 * Australia leading index fell to 0.6%, lowest in 8 yrs; skilled job vacancies fell 15.9% * NYMEX crude edged above $44 on expected historic OPEC supply cuts

FX Update- USD Slammed After Larger Than Expected Cut

The dollar has fallen to session lows across the board following the larger than expected Fed rate cut, with EUR/USD popping to highs over 1.4070, and USD/JPY falling under 89.10, as the U.S. interest rate advantage virtually disappears versus the yen. USD/JPY appears to have decoupled from U.S. equities for now, as Wall Street rallied considerably after the Fed announcement. The commodity bloc currencies have soared as well, with rates in Canada and Australia now seen as high relative to the U.S

Orc Software adds strategic partner in New Zealand and Australia

December 16th, 2008 - Orc Software announces reseller agreement with Chelmer

In the Markets

* UK Nov CPI expected at -0.3% m/m and 3.9% y/y (median same) vs 4.5% in Oct * Eurozone Dec manufacturing PMI seen falling to 33.8 (median same) from 35.6 * European calendar also has Eurozone services PMI, seen at 42.0 (median 41.0) * FOMC expected to cut by a half point and detail quantitative easing plans * U.S. calendar also has CPI, housing starts and weekly chain store sales figures. * Canadian calendar has manufacturing shipments and BoC term lending measures * EUR hit two-month high on anticipation of Fed rate cut and dovish BoJ comments * BoJ's Shirakawa warned that Japan's economy is increasingly stagnating * Japan's Nakagawa, Yosano urge BoJ to work with government, support economy * Japan Oct tertiary index rose 0.4% m/m SA (median: -0.2%), but still -1.4% y/y * U.S. Treasury yields easier into FOMC; JGB 2-yr yields at Jan lows on BoJ remarks * Asian stocks mixed-to-flat; exporters and steel companies weighed on Nikkei * Australia Q3 dwelling unit starts dropped 10.7% on qtr, down 9.1% on year * RBA's minutes to Dec 2 meeting confirm that clear expansionary policy was goal * China Nov cumulative fixed investment narrowed to 26.8% y/y from 27.2% y/y * NYMEX crude has held under $45; gold and base metals ease on demand fears * CDS spreads widened after Madoff scheme, auto bailout weighs; T-bills nega

In the Markets

European calendar has final Italian Nov HICP, expected to be confirmed at 2.8% y/y U.K. Dec home asking prices fell 2.3% on month, down 6.3% on year - Rightmove ECB Trichet: would destroy confidence if stability and growth pact were "blown up" Fed to mull exceptional measures this week in addition to 0.5% cut -- FT U.S. industrial production expected to have tumbled 0.5% m/m in Nov U.S. calendar also has Dec Empire State index and Treasury's TIC (capital flow) report BoJ's Shirakawa warned that Japan's economy could contract next fiscal year Japan's Tankan plunged to -24 (median: -23) from -3, steepest q/q drop since 1975 China Nov industrial production slowed to +5.4% y/y from 8.2%, weakest since 1999 Asian stocks broadly higher on hopes for U.S. auto bailout and commodity gains AUD, NZD, EUR and GBP all firm on risk appetite; USD-JPY remained flat NYMEX crude rose above $47 ahead of OPEC meeting; Gold, metal prices firm Australia's commodity and export forecasts cut by ABARE NZ Nov PSI contracted 1.4 pts to 47.3; NZ Q3 manufacturing sales hit five-year low Citadel halted withdrawels from two hedge funds after 50% plunge

In the Markets

* Bund futures decline in early trade, European stock market futures mixed. * U.S. auto bailout bill passed by U.S. House, now down to Senate vote. * SNB widely expected to cut its 3-month Libor target rate by 50bp to 0.00-1.00%. * European calendar also has ECBspeak and U.K. Dec CBI manufacturing orders. * BoE Barker warns short-term outlook for U.K. economy remains bleak. * ECB Tumpell-Gugerell says impact of ECB rate cuts has been muted. * U.S.calendar has jobless claims, trade and import-export price data, 10-yr reopening. * Canadian calendar has Oct trade data, surplus projected to narrow C$0.5 bln. * USD broadly weaker in stop-loss selling frenzy against EUR, CHF and GBP. * China Nov CPI fell to 2.4% y/y from 4.0%, 22-month low, below median for 3.0% y/y. * Asian stocks mixed; Australia and China fell; Nikkei posted gains. * U.S. Treasury yields heavy; MasterCard SpendingPulse shows retail sales slide. * NYMEX crude just under $44; Russian supply cuts, China reserve demand eyed. * Australia jobs fell 15.6k in Nov, as expected, unemployment rate up 0.1% to 4.4%. * NZ Nov PMI fell record low of 35.4; food prices +0.8%; house sales continue decline. * Bank of Korea cut rates by 100 bps to 3.0%, steeper than consensus for 50bp. * U.S. Treasury budgetdeficit hit record $164.4 bln; 3-yr auction had good indirect bid. * BoC Now Forecasts Recession.

FX Update: Asian Summary

The USD was broadly weaker in Asia with EUR hitting the highest levels in a month at 1.3141 in a frenzy of stop-loss selling of the dollar which triggered stops above 1.3080 and 1.3100 in the move higher. No direct news was attributed to the move but signs of increased market stability has been noted this week, slowly weighing on the USD. Stops on CHF and GBP were triggered as well with GBP/USD trading to highs of 1.4973 after triggering stops abve 1.4880 and 1.4960. Other currencies followed suit with AUD and NZD better bid but still below Wednesday's highs. USD/CAD slumped to lows of 1.2497 on the broad USD selling. USD/JPY eased to 92.26, breaking Wednesday's lows though option interest helped contain the slide. Asian stock markets were mixed with the Nikkei up but Shanghai and Australia lower. U.S. Treasury yields were still heavy. Oil prices rose above $44 on reports Russia would cut supply with OPEC and China was looking to increase strategic reserves but base metals and gold were easier.

In the Markets

* German Dec ZEW expected to decline to -57.5 (median same) from -53.5. * U.K. Oct industrial production seen down 0.4% m/m and 3.2% y/y (medians same) * U.K. RICS house sales were 10.6 in three months to November, at 30-year lows * U.K. BRC Nov like-for-like retail sales dropped to -2.6%, sharpest decline in 3 years * European calendar has German Oct trade balance, U.K. Oct visible trade deficit * U.S. calendar quiet Tue with only weekly chain store sales and Oct pending home sales * Canadian calendar has BoC decision; 50bp rate cut expected, but risk of 75bp+ * U.S. Treasury yields lower as Asia stocks pared gains, U.S. job loss announcements * Asian stocks mixed, Nikkei capped by weak GDP revision * AUD, GBP and EUR under broad selling pressure in Asia; USD-JPY retreats * NYMEX crude held just under $44 as equities rise; Gold extended gains * RJ/CRB commodity index rebounded 8-pts on stock bounce, infrastructure hopes * Australia NAB Nov business confidence survey dropped to -30, record lows * NZ Oct manufacturing sales fell 2.7% over the last year, confidence slumped * Japan mulling a Y15-Y20 tln economic package over next 3 years according to Yomiuri * Japan Q3 GDP revised to -0.5% q/q from -0.1% (median: -0.2%) for 2nd straight decline * Japan Oct leading index plunged record 4.2 pp m/m, highlights deteriorating economy * Chicago Tribune Companies filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, as mooted in the press

In the Markets

* German Oct IP expected to contract 4.0% m/m (median -2.2%) , after -3.6% in Sep * U.K. Nov PPI output forecast 4.9% y/y (median 5.0%), down from 6.8%, input 7.0% y/y * European calendar also has ECB president Trichet testifying before the EU Parliament * U.S. calendar quiet, includes Fedspeak and the Treasury's 3-yr note detailing * Canadian calendar has Nov housing starts, expected to fall 10.3% to a 190k unit rate * AUD, GBP and EUR hold firm on risk appetite as Asian stocks rally * Asian stocks higher on Wall St gain, economic stimulus; HKG and Seoul up over 7% * Australia ANZ job ads plunged 8.6% m/m in November, down 18.6% y/y * New Zealand QV house values fell 6.8% in year through November * NZ PM Key says Kiwi could fall below 0.50; NZ Q3 residential building work at 6-yr low * Japan current account 961 bln JPY in Oct vs. 1,498 bln JPY in Sept, down 57% y/y * Reserve Bank of India slashed repo rate 100 bps to 6.5%; cuts reserve repo rate too * U.S. Treasury yields hold firm levels in Asia, as Asian equity markets rally * NYMEX crude rallied above $43 on Asian stock market gains; Gold moves higher