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Preview: December Employment Report

â�¢ December Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to plummet 520k following a 533k plunge in November â�¢ The Unemployment Rate is expected to grow to 7% in December from 6.7% prior The December jobs will likely to continue to show significant labor market deterioration as the economy continues to flounder. The worse-than-expected December ADP data (-693k), combined with the jump in December Challenger Job Cuts (274.5%), suggest extensive downside risk to NFP. Many analysts revised their forecasts lower after Wednesday, and estimates for NonFarm Payrolls now range from -350-750k. December Manufacturing Employment is forecast to drop 100k after Novemberâ��s 85k decline. Average Hourly Earnings are expected to edge up 0.2% while Average Weekly Hours are predicted to be unchanged at 33.5. A positive sign for the report might be the December ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, which unexpectedly increased from 37.3 to 40.6.

Preview: November Canadian Building Permits Expected To Drop 5%

The value of Canadian Building Permits is expected to drop 5% in November, from a 15.7% plunge prior. Permits have been volatile of late but are not expected to grow given the slowdown seen in October. Tomorrowâ��s focus will be on the number of actual permits created -- following the 9.8% drop to 173.4k in October (a record low). Statistics Canada will release the data will be released at 8:30am EST tomorrow.

Preview: December Canadian Housing Starts Expected Lower

December Canadian Housing Starts are expected to decline to 170k units from 172k in November. The Canadian housing market has slowed but hasn't been hit as hard as the US sector. An expected 5% drop in November Building Permits also suggests weaker December starts. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation will post the starts data tomorrow at 8:15am EST.

Preview: December Canadian Labour Force Survey -- Unemployment Seen At 6.5%

Canada is forecast to lose 20k jobs in December following a 70.6k loss in November. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.5% from 6.3% prior. Manufacturing jobs will be of chief interest as 38k jobs were lost in this sector in November. It also remains to be seen if job losses are spread out across most demographic groups or are concentrated in one or few groups (the largest decrease seen last time was among adult men (down 40k) and youths (down 19k)). Average hourly wages are also expected to edge down to a 4.4% pace from 4.6%. Statistics Canada will release the data at 7:00am EST tomorrow.

Preview: November Wholesale Inventories

â�¢ November Wholesale Inventories are expected to fall 0.7% following a 1.1% drop in October, the biggest decline since Nov-01. November Wholesales inventories will continue to be pushed downward due to plummeting petroleum prices. In fact, the petroleum component of inventories plunged a record18.2% in the October report. Energy prices in November PPI fell just under 11.2%, November CPI energy prices fell a record 17% and petroleum import prices fell a record 25.8% in November. Wholesale sales are likely to experience a similar impact from lower energy costs in addition to downside cyclical pressures which are likely to thwart demand. Other data: â�¢ November Factory Orders fell 4.6%, ex-transports fell 4.2% â�¢ The wholesale hours worked aggregate in the November employment report declined 0.7%

TSY Developing Program to Track TARP Banks' Lending Activities --Kashkari

Treasury will use quarterly call reports to study changes in the balance sheets of institutions that have received TARP funds vs. those that have not. Such analysis will be augmented by monthly data collected from the largest TARP banks, Kashkari said.

FED May Fear Deflation - Here's Why

The FED has warned about rising inflation so often over the years that it is possible to miss its current concern over rapidly deteriorating prices.Â In this week's FOMC minutes, the FED said declines in household wealth via the housing mkt implosion, tighter credit, and unemployment could put additional downward pressure on spending in coming quarters. Less consumer spending means lower prices, and while lower energy and food prices on the producer level are now very evident, consumers have not yet felt the full effect. Indeed, November CPI shows food prices still increasing but at a slower pace.Â "Food at home" prices are expected to come down in 2009, resulting in a less than 0.2% add to annual CPI.Â Energy prices are not falling as quickly on the consumer level, either, but their contribution to 2009 CPI could be negative 2-3% according to some forecasts. Headline CPI read -0.1% in August, was flat in September, fell 1% in October, and was down 1.7% in November. The consensus estimate for December is a 0.9% drop in the headline data and a 0.1% gain in core prices.Â The FED's expectation could be even lower than what the market expects given its outlook for the overall economy and the minutes' statement that "core inflation was projected to slow considerably in 2009 and fall further in 2010."

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Update: Canadian Ivey PMI disappoints estimates

The December Canadian Ivey Purchasing Manager Index dropped to 39.1 from 40.2 in November and was well below the consensus estimate of a retreat to 37.5. By comparison the Ivey PMI was 45.9 in December 2007, and 49.4 in December 2006. The December 2008 Price Index also plunged to 47.5 from 51.6 prior, Inventories increased to 42.2 from 35.8, Deliveries were down to 40.2 from 48.4 prior, and finally Employment fell to 41 from 42.2 in November. The Canadian Ivey PMI unlike US ISM is based on end of month data and covers the complete Canadian economy, including the public and private sectors. It is not seasonally adjusted and shows responses to one question: â��Were your purchases last month in dollars higher, the same, or lower than the previous month?â�� As with US ISM, the 50 level is pivotal - below 50 indicates contraction, above 50 indicates expansion.

FX Update: Cable

Cable cleared out stops above 1.5300 as the dollar experiences broad based selling pressure. The short term market appears to be preparing itself for tomorrow's NFP data and shrugged off the U.S. initial claims, which forced Cable to the top of its recent range. The move in to 1.5335 represents its best levels since December 18th 2008. Some of the sterling move was exacerbated by unwinding of pre-BoE short positioning and this was reflected in EUR/GBP's slide to 0.8881 lows, although the cross has been subjected to large liquidation already this week amid M&A flows and unwinding by stale longs after the failure to break parity.