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Copper Falls to 4 Yr Low, Nickel Firms

Three month copper on the LME fell at one stage to $2,860 per tonne, before recovering slightly to $2,888. Nickel, on the other hand, rose 5% with the three month contract quoted at $10,3450 a tonne. Copper has fallen around 65% since its high in July of $8,940

FX Update: Swissy Firms

CHF traded on a moderately firmer footing via the crosses, with EUR/CHF trading down to 1.5728 in early European trade, while GBP/CHF recorded 1.7418 lows. The move in the crosses was largely a reflection of heavy USD/CHF sales, which overwhelmed any direct bid in EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF. USD/CHF extended its recent slump to record 1.1099 lows as the dollar came under broad selling pressure following the US Fed decision to cut its fund target to 0.00-0.25%, which matched the recent trading band of the effective fund rate. The Fed signalled rates would remain exceptionally low for some time and confirmed a quantitative easing plan. Most of the dollar selling overnight was driven by stop losses and option names, while thin year-end trading conditions have also exacerbated price action. Equity markets greeted the move with optimism, but CHF has struggled to regain selling momentum despite improved risk appetite. The dollar is likely to lead movement initally, but the CHF crosses should be supported on renewed interest from speculative names in due course.

Orc Software adds strategic partner in New Zealand and Australia

December 16th, 2008 - Orc Software announces reseller agreement with Chelmer

Fixed Income: European Outlook

European debt futures have are likely to open lower, in line with overnight Treasuries which have slipped in Asia on profit-taking, news that in the wake of the news that Treasury's Paulson is debating a second installment of the TARP package next week, as well as stock market gains. The local calendar has the final eurozone services PMI for November, which is expected to be confirmed at 43.3. There are also eurozone October eurozone retail sales, seen down 0.4% m/m (median-0.3%), which could surprise on the downside after weaker than expected German data earlier in the week. The UK has the CIPS services PMI for November, expected to fall to 41.5 (median 41.3) from 42.4 in October, but where downside risk is also present after Monday's very poor manufacturing PMI data. Comments from SNB's Roth will be watched for indications that the SNB will join other European central banks and deliver an intermeeting cut on Thursday.

FX Update: European Outlook

This week's stock market bounce, which in all likelihood is a bear market rally, helped foster a calmer tone in FX markets this week, which looks likely to remain the case into next week. The US markets reopen, but to an abbreviated session and there are no data releases or scheduled events of note. Meanwhile, a batch of data out of Japan earlier, which included production, retail sales, inflation and unemployment, revealed a worrisome drop (with the exception of jobless, which in fact fell due to a shrinkage in the labour force). Also, US 10-year Treasury yields continue to trade near 50-year lows, disconnecting with equity markets currently in reflecting recessionary fears and safe haven demand. The overnight release of UK November GfK consumer confidence showed a surprising improvement to -35 (median -38) from -36, likely aided by the huge BoE rate cut, but it remains close to its series low. The GBP market will look to the CBI distributive trades survey release today, expected to show a decline in realized sales to -30. Other data today include preliminary eurozone inflation data for November and the Swiss KOF indicator. Canada has Q3 current account data and October industrial product prices.

Base Metal Trading Lacks Trend

Three month LME copper was quoted at $3,675 per metric ton, off just $21 from the Thursday kerb.Â Â Lead, on the other hand, firmed slightly on some short covering.

FX Update- EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF lost its footing above 1.5500, with heavy flows via the dollar pairings influencing the cross. EUR/CHF spiked up to 1.5520-25 as risk appetite improved broadly after the new U.S. policy announcement and the in line GDP release. However, CHF losses have been hampered by heavy USD/CHF selling, which sent the dollar pairing to a 1.1839 low. Similarly, EUR-USD profit taking activity from 1.3080 rally highs back in to 1.3030 is adding weight on the euro crosses, which has left EUR/CHF close to 1.5450 ahead of the N.Y. options cut, where a good size 1.5450 strike is noted. However, option related flows are likely to be overwhelmed by the cross currents going through the dollar pairings. Firmer equity markets should leave the CHF on softer footing in theory, although speculative accounts may be reluctant to overstretch positions further.

Copper Thrusts Almost 8% Ahead

Three month copper surged to $3,760 on the LME from $3,540 at Friday's close. Other base metal prices rose in sympathy, all helpedÂ by the Citigroup bailout.Â Â

Metals Update: Gold Lacking Upward Momentum

Gold traded on an easier footing, with leverage accounts and short term funds selling as EUR/USD traded on an easier footing. The market has lost some of the momentum it saw in October due to a lack of sustainable direction. In the near-term, equity markets and dollar direction should lead gold. Equities looked poised to experienced continued volatility and downside risk, with the risk of long and protracted global recession undermining earnings. The dollar could see continued buying interest as a result, with safe haven flows dominating. Gold may struggle to sustain upmoves in this respect, with any safe haven flows likely to be overwhelmed by a revaluation in physical commodities and a general appetite for cash. In to the NY session gold is trading around $735.50 (mid) after trading within a range of $735.15-$740.15 since the Asian open.

Metals: Copper Backslides, Reverses Friday's Gains

Three month LME copper shed just over two pct in Far east trading. Commodities slipped on the back of profit-taking. Â