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January 8th, 2009 - Managed service provider expands reach of financial network

European Midday Report

The main focus in morning trading is the forthcoming announcement from the Bank of England (1200GMT) on an expected bank rate cut. Opinion is divided three ways between 50bps, 75 and 100bps on the Bank's likely course of action, with a majority favouring the first of those options. Sterling came under some pressure earlier but held relatively steady later in the morning at around $1.5052 and 0.9003 vs. the Euro.Â The Euro was also little moved against the dollar 1.3572 after figures from the German EconomicsÂ ministry showing a near-collapse in industrial orders, down six per cent in November month on month and a whopping 27.2 per cent year on year. Elsewhere, Dollar/JPY 91.60. European equity markets held barely steady in generally quiet conditions with the Footsie 0.99% lower and the DAX yielding 1.2%. Â Forecasts are for the Dow Jones Industrials to slip at the opening, possibly by around 30 points to 8739Â with the SP 500 off 3 to 903. European debt futures are moving up with gilts outperforming ahead of that Bank rate announcement. Bunds wiped out earlier losses on the back of those industrial orders numbers. The March 10 year Bund future is up 23 ticks on the day at 123.09 while the corresponding gilts future is up 46 ticks at 121.40. In the cash market the 10 year Bund yield is off 3 bp at 3.15% and the gilt yield is down 3 bp at 3.24% Oil prices rose in the face on Middle East fighting. The February Nymex rose 39 cents a barrel at $43.03. Gold traded with an offered bias, sliding to $834.50 inÂ Asia before recoveringÂ to around $850 in morning European dealings. Â Â Â Â Â Â

FX Midday: Europe

The European morning was influenced by risk reduction after equity markets continued to trade at softer levels. JPY and CHF traded on a firmer footing versus the dollar, which added weight on the crosses. EUR/CHF traded below 1.4950 and EUR/JPY moved towards 124.00 amid good Japanese lifer selling reportedly linked to eurozone bond redemptions. Elsewhere, EUR/USD was weighed on amid good cross flows and softer Eurozone data, but managed to find a base after recording early lows of 1.3536. Yesterday weak US ADP employment continued to highlight the difficult US economic conditions, which hampered dollar buying momentum. The heaviness in the euro crosses led to more Cable volatility, with EUR/GBP trading underneath 0.9000, which kept Cable above 1.5000 despite an early test lower. The market will towards the BOE rate decision, where a cut of at least 50 bp is expected, but uncertainty remains high.

FX Update: Sterling Uncertain Ahead of BOE Rate Decision

GBP price action is choppy ahead of BOE rate announcement. Cable fell from a 1.5141 Asian peak to hit 1.4985 lows as dollar buying interest picked up early on in the European session. However, movement under 1.5000 was unsustained and Cable bounced back in to 1.5100, where short term selling interest capped gains. Directional bias is Cable is distorted, with broader dollar movement and euro cross interest leaving Cable prices to swing in wide choppy ranges. A number of corporate accounts and proprietary names used Wednesday's sharp rally to 1.5281 as a selling opportunity, but the bounce out of 1.4375 since the turn of the year suggests that Cable could be nearing a bottom. Elsewhere, EUR/GBP is marking time ahead of 0.9000 after the earlier euro selling forced a move down to 0.8986 lows. However, there has been evidence of bargain hunting under 0.9000 on Wednesday and today, with the likelihood of more BOE aggressive rate cut compared with the ECB still making the cross a good short-term long.

Fixed Income: European Outlook

European debt futures are likely to open higher, in line with overnight Treasuries. Gilt futures could continue to outperform Bunds ahead of today's BOE decision, which is likely to bring another 50bp cut (median same) in the repo rate to 1.5%. The local data calendar is packed full and kicks off with German November trade data, expected to show a sa trade surplus of EUR 15.0 bln, slightly lower than the EUR 15.8 bln in October. Meanwhile the EU Commission's Economic Confidence survey is expected to decline to 73.5 (median 73.0) from 74.9 in November, with confidence expected to decline across all sectors. This suggests another negative GDP number in Q4, after Q3, which final GDP is expected to be confirmed at -0.2% q/q and 0.6% y/y (medians same). An expected renewed decline in German November manufacturing orders of 0.5% m/m (median -0.9%) would also confirm that a quick turnaround in demand is not in sight. Slowing growth is pushing up jobless numbers and we expect the eurozone November unemployment rate to rise to 7.8% (median same) from 7.7% in October. Elsewhere Swiss December CPI is expected to show prices falling 0.1% m/m, bringing the annual rate down to 1.2% from 1.5% in November.

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