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Markets Report

US equities were hammered overnight by growing fears the banking crisis is taking hold in Europe. The Dow plunged a record 800 points to close 3.6% lower. The S&P fell 3.9%. The Nasdaq lost 4.3%. Asian shares were mixed, with Sydney shrugging off the pessimism after the RBA cut Australia's main interest rate by a whopping 100bps to 6%. The Nikkei fell 3%. The ASX was up 1.7%. Hong Kong was closed for a holiday. European shares were called higher after staggering losses Monday. The DAX future was up 1.8%. The CAC future rose 1.9% after the cash market fell at a record pace yesterday. While investors are focused on the ongoing banking industry chaos, economic data due for release today could also provide guidance. UK August manufacturing and industrial production is scheduled for 830 GMT, and German industrial production is due at 10. Both will be broadcast live on Need to Know News' Scream Audio. The euro rebounded after turning in massive declines Monday. EUR/USD rose 0.7%. EUR/JPY added 1.7%. Cable was up 0.6%. AUD/USD rose 1% following the RBA rate cut. Bonds headed south as equity prospects were boosted in Europe. The Bund future dropped 32 ticks to 116.84 after hitting a contract high above 117 Monday. The 10yr Gund yield rose 4bps to 3.79%. The 2yr Schatz yield jumped 12bps to 3.15%. The 10yr Gilt yield was flat at 4.22%. The 10yr JGB yield added 6bps to 1.44%. The 10yr T-note yield was up 7bps to 3.53%. Oil shot higher in volatile thanks to the dollar declines and hopes that not all economic growth is dead following the RBA rate cut. WTI was up 2.5% at $89.98. Brent rose 1.6% to $85.05.

Fixed Income: Bonds Slide on Hopes of Rate Cuts

Bund futures are sharply lower in early trade, in line with overnight Treasuries and as the sharp RBA rate cut sparked hopes of cuts elsewhere and supported Asian stock markets. European stock market futures are higher ahead of market opening. As of 6:31GMT, the December 10-year Bund future is down 37 ticks on the day at 116.80. The 10-year Bund yield is up 4 bp at 3.79% and the 2-year yield is up 11 tick at 3.17%. By comparison the December 3-months Euribor future is up 0.035 at 95.510 and back months future are down from the June 09 contract onwards.

CORRECT: Markets Report

(Corrects record Dow decline to intraday record fall) US equities were hammered overnight by growing fears the banking crisis is taking hold in Europe. The Dow plunged 800 points during the session -- an intraday record -- and ended 3.6% lower and below 10.000 points. The S&P fell 3.9%. The Nasdaq lost 4.3%. Asian shares were mixed, with Sydney shrugging off the pessimism after the RBA cut Australia's main interest rate by a whopping 100bps to 6%. The Nikkei fell 3%. The ASX was up 1.7%. Hong Kong was closed for a holiday. European shares were called higher after staggering losses Monday. The DAX future was up 1.8%. The CAC future rose 1.9% after the cash market fell at a record pace yesterday. While investors are focused on the ongoing banking industry chaos, economic data due for release today could also provide guidance. UK August manufacturing and industrial production is scheduled for 830 GMT, and German industrial production is due at 10. Both will be broadcast live on Need to Know News' Scream Audio. The euro rebounded after turning in massive declines Monday. EUR/USD rose 0.7%. EUR/JPY added 1.7%. Cable was up 0.6%. AUD/USD rose 1% following the RBA rate cut. Bonds headed south as equity prospects were boosted in Europe. The Bund future dropped 32 ticks to 116.84 after hitting a contract high above 117 Monday. The 10yr Gund yield rose 4bps to 3.79%. The 2yr Schatz yield jumped 12bps to 3.15%. The 10yr Gilt yield was flat at 4.22%. The 10yr JGB yield added 6bps to 1.44%. The 10yr T-note yield was up 7bps to 3.53%. Oil shot higher in volatile thanks to the dollar declines and hopes that not all economic growth is dead following the RBA rate cut. WTI was up 2.5% at $89.98. Brent rose 1.6% to $85.05.

FX Update: European Outlook

The RBA's mammoth 100bp rate cut -- its biggest since 1992 -- has set a precedent and boosted speculation for a coordinated round of global rate cuts to counter recessionary winds. That saw Australian stocks rally and Asian markets pare losses. Commodities, which fell limit down in Shanghai trading, managed to find a footing. In the FX world, the relaxation in risk aversion saw the USD, JPY and CHF give back some of their recent gains versus the AUD and the main European currencies, though lower global rates are likely to ultimately benefit the US currency more. As Fed members Bullard, Fisher and Evans implied on Monday, the US monetary policy cycle is already at its outer limits in terms of effectiveness (real rates are negative). Focus will remain on the unfolding crisis, and currency moves are likely to reflect the ebb and flow of risk aversion. European data today are likely to reflect the weakening economic picture, which can only get worse with money markets remaining near frozen, while a Bernanke speech and Sep-16 FOMC minutes highlight the US calendar.

Fixed Income: Gilts Slide

Gilts slumped in opening trade, in line with Bunds, as stock markets showed a bit of a relief rally after the RBA 100 bp rate cut overnight. The domestic agenda holds August industrial and manufacturing production, but data is likely to continue to take a back seat as the latest events unfold within the financial market crisis. The December 10-year Gilt future is down 38 ticks to 113.71. The 2-year cash yield is up 7 bp to 3.72% and the 10-year yield is up 3 bp to 4.26%. FTSE 100 opened 1.9% higher.

FX Update: Cable Steady

Cable held steady close to 1.7500 versus overnight lows of 1.7408 amid reports of Asian reserve management demand from early European trade. Meanwhile, GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF are also relatively stable, trading close to 180.00 and 2.0000 respectively. RBA's aggressive 1% rate cut overnight has predictably fueled coordinated rate cut speculation, although the individual nuances of each national economy may argue for a less aggressive hand from the BOE. The Bank has already cut 75 bps and while the calls for 50 bp grow louder, most are still calling for a 25 bp move. The market will focus on August industrial production ahead, which will underline how rapidly the UK economy is cooling, which will keep rate cuts hopes at fever pitch ahead of Thursday's BOE MPC decision. Elsewhere, the UK Times said the Treasury may take a GBP 50 bln stake to shore up high street banks

UK AUG INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION -0.6% M/M; MANUFACTURING -0.4%, LONGEST NEGATIVE RUN IN 28 YEARS

The manufacturing sector is in the worst state it has been for almost 30 years, official figures showed. Data from the ONS showed the decline in UK industrial production accelerated in August, missing analysts' forecasts and confirming that the credit crunch is now clamping down on the real economy. Industrial production fell 0.6% in August from July, dragged down by a significant fall in the car industry. August's fall marks the sixth consecutive month in which production has not grown. There has not been such a long run without growth in 17 years. In annual terms, industrial production was down 2.3%, its biggest fall since March 2005. Industrial production accounts for just under a fifth of GDP. Manufacturing output, which makes up the bulk of industrial production, fell 0.4% on the month. It has fallen for six consecutive months, the longest negative run in 28 years. Manufacturing output year-on-year was down 1.9%, the worst outturn since May 2003. Medium-term trends confirm weakness in industry, with the rolling three-month-on-three-month industrial production level down 1.1%. Survey evidence points to more gloom ahead in the industrial sector. The CIPS manufacturing PMI survey was deep in contractionary territory in September. The British Chambers of Commerce today said the UK is in a "worsening recession" and called for immediate cuts in interest rates.

FX Update: Sterling Unconcerned by Production Data

GBP showed a muted reaction to UK data despite August manufacturing production declining 0.4% m/m, while industrial fell 0.6% m/m. The data will increase the pressure on the BOE to deliver a rate cut this week, although the immediate focus is on the UK banking sector. A banking industry source said the British government and bank will discuss the structure of any recapitalisation over the next couple of days. UK banks have been keen to play down UK banking funding speculation, with Barclays denying its asked for assistance, while RBS declined comment. UK bank shares slumped after earlier speculation, which emanated from a BBC blog from business editor Robert Peston. Cable is off its 1.7322 lows and changes hands close to 1.7385, while EUR/GBP is supported ahead of 0.7800 after hitting 0.7812 highs.

German Aug Industrial Order Preview: -0.1% m-o-m is Expected

German August factory orders are seen falling 0.1% m-o-m compared to sharp declines of 1.7% in July and 2.6% in June. The annual rate in July improved to -0.7% from -6%. The data will be released Tuesday at 10 GMT and broadcast live on Need to Know Newsâ�� Scream Audio. Orders have been slipping all year, and with recession threatening both the Eurozone and the rest of the world, it looks likely demand for goods will continue to decline. The German Economy Ministry said in its report on the July data that there is a "less optimistic mood" in manufacturing in Europe's largest economy and the current "weak phase" will continue. Demand both at home and abroad has been suffering the past few months, the ministry said. Domestic orders in July dropped 3.6% m-o-m, while international orders creeped 0.3% higher.

Markets Report

European indices shook off early losses to trade higher amid reports major UK banks may ask the government to buy stakes in an attempt to shore up liquidity. The FTSEurofirst gained 0.8%. The FTSE 100 future rose 0.6%. The DAX future added 1.3%. The CAC future was up 1%. UK banks fell sharply, with RBS at one point off nearly 40% on a slew of reports that it, Lloyds, HBOS and Barclays are mulling stake sales to the UK government. Iceland took control of its second largest bank, and the country's currency hit new lows against the euro. Reports say Iceland took a EUR 4bln loan from Russia to shore up its cash position. Russia denied the report. VW skyrocketed 48% on reports Porsche will take a controlling stake in Europe's largest automaker by 26 November. Economic data was mixed. UK August industrial production dropped for the sixth straight month, the longest such run in 30 years. German August industrial orders rose 3.6% m-o-m, the first increase in nine months. Y-o-y orders plunged 7.6%. The UK banking crisis hammered sterling early in the session, and trading remained highly volatile. Cable was down 0.1% after falling to a 30mth low in intraday trading. EUR/GBP added 0.5%. GBP/JPY was was off 0.2%. EUR/USD added 0.5%. Bonds eased as equities returned to the green. The Bund future dropped 8 ticks to 117.09. The 10yr Bund yield rose 1bp to 3.77%. The 10yr Gilt yield was up 2bps to 4.24%. The 10yr JGB yield added 9bps to 1.47%. The 10yr T-note yield gained 4bps to 3.5%. Oil rallied on dollar declines and an unexpected 100bp cut by the RBA overnight. WTI was up 3.2% at $90.60 after a brief stint above $91. Brent added 2.4% to $85.77.