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Tidbits from NABE meeting - GDP and Employment going in opposite directions

NBER"s Dr Hall, on the Business Cycle Dating Committee, said the cmte is not ready to call a "peak" - the beginning of a recession because Employment and GDP are showing different trends.Â Dr. Hall added that the Committee will not be ready to call a recession before year end.Â His personal view is that the U.S. economy has hit the "peak"...the start of a recession.

Tidbits from NABE meeting - GDP and Employment going in opposite directions

Fixed Income: European Outlook

European debt futures are expected to open lower, on reports over the weekend from both the G7 meeting and the eurozone summit in Paris yesterday, that global leaders stand ready to take far-reaching measures to support the banking system. Such a move would also be in line with US Treasuries, which are lower since Friday's European close. Meanwhile, European stock markets are expected to open higher. Details on individual eurozone countries' bank rescue plans were to be released today, and the UK government is expected to announce the size of its capital injection into several of the country's largest banks this morning. The local calendar is light, with only UK September PPI data, expected to show further output price growth deceleration. Note that US bond markets are closed today (though equities trading is opened), while Canadian markets are closed.

Stark: 50bps Rate Cut Was Not a Panic Move

Last week's cut, coordinated with the BOE, Fed and other central banks, may not be last, Stark signalled. He said central banks remain ready to take joint action if necessary.

Canadian Equities Update

After a spectacular rally in morning trading the S&P/TSX has fallen 934 points, or 8.5%, to stand at 9,955 or up 890 points today, as of this report. Todayâ��s rally has been largely led by Financials and Energy with Mining succumbing to market gyrations though all but Gold producers still trading in positive territory. In Financials RBC is up 14.1% and TD Bank is up 12.64%. Even Manulife which looked ready to sink this morning rallied on news that it will maintain its dividend and consider acquisitions â�� and is currently up 14.57%. All had surged more than 20% earlier in the day. Energy stocks are also still positive in spite of a drop in Crude prices with Talisman up 23.15%, and Nexen up 15.06%. Among Mining stocks Barrick is off 2.07% and Yamana down 1.1% while Tech is up 14.2%.

European Pertinent Press

Forget the Bailout -- Recession Fears Hammer Stocks FT http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fd44b104-9ae3-11dd-a653-000077b07658.html WSJE http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122411376471138395.html?mod=testMod EU To Call for Single Oversight Organ for World's Largest Financials WSJE1 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122410374174437725.html Iceland FX Grinds to a Halt While Reykjavik Tries to Protect Currency FT http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ecb937f6-9af7-11dd-a653-000077b07658.html Is ECB Becoming Sub-Prime Lender as it Accepts Riskier Collateral? FT2 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2c9507e4-9ab5-11dd-bfd8-000077b07658.html Russian Bank Run Shows Customers Ready to Stampede FT3 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/b2115c90-9afd-11dd-a653-000077b07658.html Bernanke Warns US Recovery Could be Slow FT4 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9c9748d4-9af3-11dd-a653-000077b07658.html

Shell Postpones Oil-sands Project Indefinitely

Royal Dutch Shell, today announced an indefinite postponement to an expansion of its Canadian Athabasca oil-sands project on rising costs. The company had already delayed a decision on Phase II of theÂ project till next year but is now extending that delay according to a Bloomberg report. The Dutch oil giant already operates the Scotsford upgrader in Alberta with a capacity of 155k bpd converting bitumen into refinery-ready crude. The upgrader forms part of the Athabasca project, together with the nearby Muskeg River Mine, which supplies the bitumen. According the Shell the latest delay will not prevent it from doing some work on improving existing mines. Meanwhile the company said it is restarting a cogeneration unit at the Scotford upgrader. Both Chevron and Marathon Oil are partners in Shell's Athabasca enterprise.

Markets Report

Asian shares started the week higher as bargain hunting combined with optimisim about the global economy ahead of expected rate cuts in the UK, Australia and the Eurozone. The Hang Seng rose 5.3%. The ASX was up 4.8%. The Kospi gained 1.4% after South Korea announced that the country's $11bln economic stimulus package would add a percentage point to total output. Tokyo was closed for a holiday. European markets were called higher on the back of the Asian rally. The DAX and CAC futures were both up 0.7%. The economic calendar includes Italian, German, French and EZ October manufacturing PMIs. The yen continues its rollercoaster ride, with today's thrill the ride down the hill as investors felt ready to take on some risk. EUR/JPY was off 2.2%. GBP/JPY fell 2.9%. The USD/JPY was up 1%. The dollar slid The EUR/USD was up 1.2%. Cable added 1.9%. Bonds were higher ahead of expected rate cuts in the UK and EZ. The 10yr Bund future rose 24 ticks to 116.18. The 10yr Bund yield was down 3bps to 3.89%. The 2yr Schatz fell 1bp to 2.59%. The 10yr Gilt yield dropped 1bp to 4.52%. The 2yr Gilt was off 1bp at 2.92%. The 10yr T-note rose 1bp to 3.98%. Oil took a bid on the decline in the greenback. WTI was up 1.4% to $68.76. Brent added 1.4% to $66.22.

Markets Report

European shares were slightly higher to flat amid low volumes ahead of the US elections. Growing recession fears fueled by grim economic forecasts initially pressured markets, which rebounded around midday. The FTSEurofirst300 was flat. The FTSE 100 rose 0.4%. The CAC was little changed. The DAX was up 0.5%, moving back above the 5,000 mark. European economic data focused on EZ manufacturing PMI, which hit a record low in October. IThe EU Commission sees EZ inflation at 3.5% this year and 2.2% the year after. EZ growth is predicted to come to a standstill in '09, from 1.2% expected for this year. The yen fell against the dollar and the euro as investors appeared to be ready for more risk. EUR/JPY was up 1.9%. GBP/JPY won 1.6%. USD/JPY gained 0.7%. EUR/USD rose 1.1%. Cable increased 0.9%. Bonds were higher despite stock market optimism. The 10yr Bund future was up 47 ticks 116.43. The 10yr Bund yield fell 5bps to 3.86%. The Schatz was down 2bps to 2.57%. The 10yr Gilt lost 5bps to 4.48%. The 2yr Gilt shed 5bps to 2.88%. The 10yr T-note was down 2bps to 3.96%. Oil was slightly lower due to growing fears that the global demand slowdown may be increased by bad figures from emerging markets. WTI dropped 1.1% to $67.10. Brent was down 1.5% to $64.39.

TSY 'Ready' for Rapid Transition w/ New President --Spokesperson

A TSY official said Secretary Paulson recognizes that a smooth transition "is in the interest of financial markets." That transition, of course, will be without the secretary, who has made clear he will not stay on after President Bush leaves office in January.